EconomyAustralia edition
Australia birth rate 1.48 in 2024: nine-year low as the 65+ share climbs
Australia's fertility rate fell to 1.48 births per woman in 2024, down for a third year in a row and the lowest reading in nine years. The share of the population aged 65 and over kept rising, reaching 18.09% in 2025 after nine consecutive annual increases. Both figures now sit at the edge of their recent range, which tells a clearer story than either number alone.
The long view
- highest in 9 yrs
- 18.09% 2025
- lowest in 9 yrs
- 15.15% 2016
- 9-yr average
- 16.55%
- Readings below the latest figure
- 100%
Vernumo calculation
Australia Share of population aged 65+ →
Two figures at opposite ends of their range
Australia's total fertility rate was 1.48 births per woman in 2024, and the share of residents aged 65 and over was 18.09% in 2025. Each is an extreme for the past nine years. On Vernumo's own calculation from the official series, no earlier reading in that span had a lower fertility rate, and every earlier reading of the 65-and-over share was below the latest one. F20+5
The averages show how far each has moved. The fertility rate averaged 1.66 over the nine years and has now been below that average for three consecutive years. The older share averaged 16.55% and has been above its average for five years running. L9+3
2015 to 2020: a slow slide, then a sharper drop
The span opens with fertility at its nine-year high of 1.81 births per woman in 2015, while the 65-and-over share was at its nine-year low of 15.15% in 2016. The fertility rate eased to 1.75 in 2016 and held at 1.74 in 2017 and 2018. L7+6
The steeper falls came next, with the rate at 1.66 in 2019 and 1.58 in 2020. Over the same years the older share kept edging up, from 15.39% in 2017 to 16.34% in 2020, without a single pause. F15+3
2021 was the one rebound, and it did not last
Fertility rose to 1.7 births per woman in 2021, the only increase in the series. It then fell for three straight years: 1.63 in 2022, 1.5 in 2023 and 1.48 in 2024. F17+4
2021 was also the year the 65-and-over share crossed its nine-year average, reaching 16.75%. It has climbed every year since, to 17.73% in 2024 and 18.09% in 2025, extending a run of nine consecutive annual rises. F6+4
Close to one in five Australians is now 65 or over
In plain terms, 18.09% of Australia's population was aged 65 and over in 2025, up from 15.15% in 2016. Over the same stretch, the fertility rate, which summarises how many children women are having on current patterns, fell from 1.81 in 2015 to 1.48 in 2024. F10+3
These figures describe the age make-up of the population and the pace of births. They do not show how services, housing or household budgets are affected, so this data cannot say what the shift means for any particular family. F10+1
The two series end a year apart
The latest fertility reading is for 2024 while the latest age-share reading is for 2025, so the two do not cover the same final year. The fertility rate is a yearly summary measure, not a count of births. F20+1
Scenarios to watch
- Scenario, not a forecast If the next fertility release comes in below 1.48, it would be a fourth consecutive fall and a new nine-year low.
- Scenario, not a forecast If the next fertility reading rises back above the nine-year average of 1.66, the run of below-average years would end.
What to check next
- The ABS births release covering 2025, to see whether the three-year fall continues
- The 2026 reading of the 65-and-over share, and whether the run of annual rises reaches ten
- Whether the fertility rate moves back above 1.66, its nine-year average
Verified data used in this report
| Indicator | Value | Period | Sources | Accessed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ | 15.15% | 2016 | World Bank | |
| F10 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ | 18.09% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| F11 | Australia · Fertility rate | 1.81 | 2015 | World Bank | |
| F12 | Australia · Fertility rate | 1.75 | 2016 | World Bank | |
| F13 | Australia · Fertility rate | 1.74 | 2017 | World Bank | |
| F14 | Australia · Fertility rate | 1.74 | 2018 | World Bank | |
| F15 | Australia · Fertility rate | 1.66 | 2019 | World Bank | |
| F16 | Australia · Fertility rate | 1.58 | 2020 | World Bank | |
| F17 | Australia · Fertility rate | 1.7 | 2021 | World Bank | |
| F18 | Australia · Fertility rate | 1.63 | 2022 | World Bank | |
| F19 | Australia · Fertility rate | 1.5 | 2023 | World Bank | |
| F2 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ | 15.39% | 2017 | World Bank | |
| F20 | Australia · Fertility rate | 1.48 | 2024 | World Bank | |
| F5 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ | 16.34% | 2020 | World Bank | |
| F6 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ | 16.75% | 2021 | World Bank | |
| F9 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ | 17.73% | 2024 | World Bank | |
| L1 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ · highest in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 18.09% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| L2 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ · lowest in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 15.15% | 2016 | World Bank | |
| L3 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ · 9-yr average (Vernumo calculation) | 16.55% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| L4 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ · share of readings below this in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 100% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| L5 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ · readings in a row above the 9-yr average (Vernumo calculation) | 5 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| L6 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ · rises in a row (Vernumo calculation) | 9 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| L7 | Australia · Fertility rate · highest in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 1.81 | 2015 | World Bank | |
| L8 | Australia · Fertility rate · lowest in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 1.48 | 2024 | World Bank | |
| L9 | Australia · Fertility rate · 9-yr average (Vernumo calculation) | 1.66 | 2024 | World Bank | |
| L10 | Australia · Fertility rate · share of readings below this in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 0% | 2024 | World Bank | |
| L11 | Australia · Fertility rate · readings in a row below the 9-yr average (Vernumo calculation) | 3 | 2024 | World Bank | |
| L12 | Australia · Fertility rate · falls in a row (Vernumo calculation) | 3 | 2024 | World Bank |
Other background figures (24)
| Indicator | Value | Period | Sources | Accessed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F3 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ | 15.64% | 2018 | World Bank | |
| F4 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ | 15.95% | 2019 | World Bank | |
| F7 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ | 17.08% | 2022 | World Bank | |
| F8 | Australia · Share of population aged 65+ | 17.38% | 2023 | World Bank | |
| C2 | Australia · Consumer price inflation | 4.3% | Sept 2026 | Australian Bureau of Statistics | |
| C3 | Australia · Electricity price inflation | 12.8% | Sept 2026 | Australian Bureau of Statistics | |
| C4 | Australia · Food price inflation | 3.2% | Sept 2026 | Australian Bureau of Statistics | |
| C5 | Australia · Fuel price inflation | 23.6% | Sept 2026 | Australian Bureau of Statistics | |
| C6 | Australia · Gas price inflation | 1% | Sept 2026 | Australian Bureau of Statistics | |
| C7 | Australia · Rent inflation | 3.6% | Sept 2026 | Australian Bureau of Statistics | |
| C8 | Australia · Unemployment rate | 4.72% | Sept 2026 | Australian Bureau of Statistics | |
| C9 | Australia · GDP growth | 1.35% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| C10 | Australia · House prices | 10.3% | Q1 2026 | OECD | |
| C11 | Australia · Unemployment rate | 4.09% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| C14 | Australia · Population growth | 1.53% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R127 | Australia position among OECD member countries by house price growth over 12 months, counted from the highest (1 = highest in the OECD) | 8 | Q1 2026 | OECD | |
| R128 | number of OECD member countries with house price growth over 12 months data for this period | 35 | Q1 2026 | OECD | |
| R129 | Australia house price growth over 12 months, OECD comparison measure (OECD nominal house price index, 12-month change; can differ from the national release) | 10.3% | Q1 2026 | OECD | |
| R196 | Australia position among OECD member countries by total fertility rate (births per woman), counted from the highest (1 = highest in the OECD) | 10 | 2024 | World Bank | |
| R197 | number of OECD member countries with total fertility rate (births per woman) data for this period | 38 | 2024 | World Bank | |
| R198 | Australia total fertility rate (births per woman), OECD comparison measure (World Bank, total fertility rate; can differ from the national release) | 1.48 | 2024 | World Bank | |
| R259 | Australia position among OECD member countries by population growth, counted from the highest (1 = highest in the OECD) | 2 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R260 | number of OECD member countries with population growth data for this period | 38 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R261 | Australia population growth, OECD comparison measure (World Bank, population growth; can differ from the national release) | 1.53% | 2025 | World Bank |
Sources
How this report was checked
- Data: the newest reference period cited is Q1 2026.
- Figures were collected from the source on
- Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
- Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
- A separate quality-check model raised concerns, and the report was rewritten once to address them.
- No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.
Update history
- 2026-11-05 13:03 UTC — created
- 2026-11-05 13:03 UTC — approved+published
This analysis was written by AI from official statistics and passed automated checks. Last checked: 2026-11-05