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EconomyU.S. edition

US food prices vs wages: pay ahead by 1.2 points, September 2026

In September 2026, US food prices were 1.8% higher than a year earlier while average hourly pay for private employees was up 3%, so pay growth led food inflation by 1.2 percentage points. That lead is nearly unchanged from 1.1 points in September 2025, because both rates slowed by similar amounts over the year. Wage growth is now the lowest of the past five years, while food inflation was last this low in December 2024.

Published 2 min read

U.S. · Food price inflationU.S.: Jan 2018 1%, Feb 2018 0.5%, Mar 2018 0.4%, Apr 2018 0.5%, May 2018 0.1%, Jun 2018 0.4%, Jul 2018 0.4%, Aug 2018 0.5%, Sep 2018 0.4%, Oct 2018 0.1%, Nov 2018 0.4%, Dec 2018 0.6%, Jan 2019 0.6%, Feb 2019 1.2%, Mar 2019 1.4%, Apr 2019 0.7%, May 2019 1.2%, Jun 2019 0.9%, Jul 2019 0.6%, Aug 2019 0.5%, Sep 2019 0.6%, Oct 2019 1%, Nov 2019 1%, Dec 2019 0.7%, Jan 2020 0.7%, Feb 2020 0.8%, Mar 2020 1.1%, Apr 2020 4.1%, May 2020 4.8%, Jun 2020 5.6%, Jul 2020 4.6%, Aug 2020 4.6%, Sep 2020 4.1%, Oct 2020 4%, Nov 2020 3.6%, Dec 2020 3.9%, Jan 2021 3.7%, Feb 2021 3.5%, Mar 2021 3.3%, Apr 2021 1.2%, May 2021 0.7%, Jun 2021 0.9%, Jul 2021 2.6%, Aug 2021 3%, Sep 2021 4.5%, Oct 2021 5.4%, Nov 2021 6.4%, Dec 2021 6.5%, Jan 2022 7.4%, Feb 2022 8.6%, Mar 2022 10%, Apr 2022 10.8%, May 2022 11.9%, Jun 2022 12.2%, Jul 2022 13.1%, Aug 2022 13.5%, Sep 2022 13%, Oct 2022 12.4%, Nov 2022 12%, Dec 2022 11.8%, Jan 2023 11.3%, Feb 2023 10.2%, Mar 2023 8.4%, Apr 2023 7.1%, May 2023 5.8%, Jun 2023 4.7%, Jul 2023 3.6%, Aug 2023 3%, Sep 2023 2.4%, Oct 2023 2.1%, Nov 2023 1.7%, Dec 2023 1.3%, Jan 2024 1.2%, Feb 2024 1%, Mar 2024 1.2%, Apr 2024 1.1%, May 2024 1%, Jun 2024 1.1%, Jul 2024 1.1%, Aug 2024 0.9%, Sep 2024 1.3%, Oct 2024 1.1%, Nov 2024 1.6%, Dec 2024 1.8%, Jan 2025 1.9%, Feb 2025 1.9%, Mar 2025 2.4%, Apr 2025 2%, May 2025 2.2%, Jun 2025 2.4%, Jul 2025 2.2%, Aug 2025 2.7%, Sep 2025 2.7%, Nov 2025 1.9%, Dec 2025 2.4%, Jan 2026 2.1%, Feb 2026 2.4%, Mar 2026 1.9%, Apr 2026 2.9%, May 2026 2.7%, Jun 2026 2.7%, Jul 2026 2.7%, Aug 2026 2.2%, Sep 2026 1.8% U.S. · Food price inflation % · Jan 2018–Sep 2026 0%6.75%13.5%U.S. Jan 2018: 1%U.S. Feb 2018: 0.5%U.S. Mar 2018: 0.4%U.S. Apr 2018: 0.5%U.S. May 2018: 0.1%U.S. Jun 2018: 0.4%U.S. Jul 2018: 0.4%U.S. Aug 2018: 0.5%U.S. Sep 2018: 0.4%U.S. Oct 2018: 0.1%U.S. Nov 2018: 0.4%U.S. Dec 2018: 0.6%U.S. Jan 2019: 0.6%U.S. Feb 2019: 1.2%U.S. Mar 2019: 1.4%U.S. Apr 2019: 0.7%U.S. May 2019: 1.2%U.S. Jun 2019: 0.9%U.S. Jul 2019: 0.6%U.S. Aug 2019: 0.5%U.S. Sep 2019: 0.6%U.S. Oct 2019: 1%U.S. Nov 2019: 1%U.S. Dec 2019: 0.7%U.S. Jan 2020: 0.7%U.S. Feb 2020: 0.8%U.S. Mar 2020: 1.1%U.S. Apr 2020: 4.1%U.S. May 2020: 4.8%U.S. Jun 2020: 5.6%U.S. Jul 2020: 4.6%U.S. Aug 2020: 4.6%U.S. Sep 2020: 4.1%U.S. Oct 2020: 4%U.S. Nov 2020: 3.6%U.S. Dec 2020: 3.9%U.S. Jan 2021: 3.7%U.S. Feb 2021: 3.5%U.S. Mar 2021: 3.3%U.S. Apr 2021: 1.2%U.S. May 2021: 0.7%U.S. Jun 2021: 0.9%U.S. Jul 2021: 2.6%U.S. Aug 2021: 3%U.S. Sep 2021: 4.5%U.S. Oct 2021: 5.4%U.S. Nov 2021: 6.4%U.S. Dec 2021: 6.5%U.S. Jan 2022: 7.4%U.S. Feb 2022: 8.6%U.S. Mar 2022: 10%U.S. Apr 2022: 10.8%U.S. May 2022: 11.9%U.S. Jun 2022: 12.2%U.S. Jul 2022: 13.1%U.S. Aug 2022: 13.5%U.S. Sep 2022: 13%U.S. Oct 2022: 12.4%U.S. Nov 2022: 12%U.S. Dec 2022: 11.8%U.S. Jan 2023: 11.3%U.S. Feb 2023: 10.2%U.S. Mar 2023: 8.4%U.S. Apr 2023: 7.1%U.S. May 2023: 5.8%U.S. Jun 2023: 4.7%U.S. Jul 2023: 3.6%U.S. Aug 2023: 3%U.S. Sep 2023: 2.4%U.S. Oct 2023: 2.1%U.S. Nov 2023: 1.7%U.S. Dec 2023: 1.3%U.S. Jan 2024: 1.2%U.S. Feb 2024: 1%U.S. Mar 2024: 1.2%U.S. Apr 2024: 1.1%U.S. May 2024: 1%U.S. Jun 2024: 1.1%U.S. Jul 2024: 1.1%U.S. Aug 2024: 0.9%U.S. Sep 2024: 1.3%U.S. Oct 2024: 1.1%U.S. Nov 2024: 1.6%U.S. Dec 2024: 1.8%U.S. Jan 2025: 1.9%U.S. Feb 2025: 1.9%U.S. Mar 2025: 2.4%U.S. Apr 2025: 2%U.S. May 2025: 2.2%U.S. Jun 2025: 2.4%U.S. Jul 2025: 2.2%U.S. Aug 2025: 2.7%U.S. Sep 2025: 2.7%U.S. Nov 2025: 1.9%U.S. Dec 2025: 2.4%U.S. Jan 2026: 2.1%U.S. Feb 2026: 2.4%U.S. Mar 2026: 1.9%U.S. Apr 2026: 2.9%U.S. May 2026: 2.7%U.S. Jun 2026: 2.7%U.S. Jul 2026: 2.7%U.S. Aug 2026: 2.2%U.S. Sep 2026: 1.8%1.8%Jan 2018May 2022Sep 2026 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics https://vernumo.com/en/a/us-food-prices-vs-wages-pay-ahead-by-1-2-points-september-2026-14aua
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The long view

highest in 5 yrs
13.5% August 2022
lowest in 5 yrs
0.9% August 2024
5-yr average
4.7%
Readings below the latest figure
22%

Vernumo calculation

Next official release: Consumer Price Index —

U.S. Food price inflation →

Pay leads food prices by 1.2 points, barely more than a year ago

In September 2026, average hourly earnings of US private employees were 3% higher than a year earlier, while food prices were up 1.8%. Both are 12-month changes, which compare one month with the same month a year before, not with the previous month. Pay growth was therefore ahead of food inflation by 1.2 percentage points, a gap that is Vernumo's own calculation from the official series. F4+2

A year earlier, in September 2025, the lead was 1.1 points, with food inflation at 2.7% and pay growth at 3.8%. Over the year both rates fell by close to a point. The distance between them hardly moved. L17+2

Against its own past, today's lead is modest. In August 2022 food prices outran pay by 8.1 points, the widest gap in the past five years in that direction. At the other end, in January 2024 pay growth led food inflation by 3.2 points. L18+1

Both rates sit near the bottom of their five-year range

Wage growth of 3% in September is the lowest reading of the past five years, and the rate has not been this low since May 2021, when it stood at 2.3%. It has fallen for three months in a row and has been below its five-year average of 4.3% for 32 consecutive months. F8+5

Food inflation is also unusually low. September's reading was the lowest since December 2024, and only 22% of months in the past five years came in lower. It has stayed below its five-year average of 4.7% for 38 consecutive months. F4+4

Since the summer, food slowed faster than pay

Food inflation held at 2.7% in June and July, then dropped in August and again in September. Pay growth eased more gently over the same months, from 3.4% in June to 3.1% in August. Because food cooled faster, the lead of pay over food widened through the late summer. F1+5

What the gap means for people paid by the hour

For a private-sector employee earning the average hourly wage, hourly pay in September 2026 had risen more over the year than the average price of food. The margin, 1.2 percentage points, is about the same as a year earlier. The figures say nothing about hours worked, other household costs or how any particular family shops. L16+3

Hourly pay for private employees, food only

The pay series covers private employees' average hourly earnings, so it leaves out public-sector workers and changes in hours. The price side is food alone: overall consumer prices rose 3.7% over the 12 months to September 2026, well above the food component, so this gap does not describe the whole shopping basket. F8+2

AI analyst view

Little change expected low confidence next 3 months

Estimate range: -1.6 to -0.8 pp

Why

  • Food inflation dropped quickly from 2.7% in July to 1.8% in September, and at that level only 22% of the past five years' readings were lower, so further falls of the same size look less likely than a slower drift. F2 F4 L5
  • Wage growth has eased by roughly a tenth of a point a month for three months, a slow pace that typically follows a cooling labor market rather than reversing abruptly. F6 F7 F8 L14
  • With food slowing more steeply than pay but already low, the two forces roughly offset, which points to a lead of pay over food close to the September gap of 1.2 points. L16 L17

What would change this view

  • If food inflation climbs back to 2.7% while pay growth stays near 3%
  • If food inflation falls toward the five-year low of 0.9%
  • If wage growth drops toward the 2.3% last seen in May 2021

This is the AI’s own interpretation of the official figures above, not an official forecast. It may turn out wrong.

Scenarios to watch

  • Scenario, not a forecast If food inflation keeps sliding toward the five-year low it reached in August 2024 while pay growth levels off, the lead of pay over food would widen further.
  • Scenario, not a forecast If pay growth keeps falling at the pace of recent months and food inflation stops easing, the lead would shrink back toward the narrow levels seen a year ago.

What to check next

  • October food inflation in the next CPI release
  • October average hourly earnings for private employees
  • Whether overall CPI inflation stays well above the food component

Verified data used in this report

IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
F1U.S. · Food price inflation2.7%Jun 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F2U.S. · Food price inflation2.7%Jul 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F3U.S. · Food price inflation2.2%Aug 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F4U.S. · Food price inflation1.8%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F5U.S. · Wage growth3.4%Jun 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F6U.S. · Wage growth3.2%Jul 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F7U.S. · Wage growth3.1%Aug 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F8U.S. · Wage growth3%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L3U.S. · Food price inflation · 5-yr average (Vernumo calculation)4.7%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L4U.S. · Food price inflation · last this low (Vernumo calculation)1.8%Dec 2024U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L5U.S. · Food price inflation · share of readings below this in 5 yrs (Vernumo calculation)22%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L6U.S. · Food price inflation · readings in a row below the 5-yr average (Vernumo calculation)38Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L7U.S. · Food price inflation2.7%Sep 2025U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L9U.S. · Wage growth · lowest in 5 yrs (Vernumo calculation)3%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L10U.S. · Wage growth · 5-yr average (Vernumo calculation)4.3%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L11U.S. · Wage growth · last this low (Vernumo calculation)2.3%May 2021U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L13U.S. · Wage growth · readings in a row below the 5-yr average (Vernumo calculation)32Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L14U.S. · Wage growth · falls in a row (Vernumo calculation)3Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L15U.S. · Wage growth3.8%Sep 2025U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L16U.S. · Food price inflation / U.S. · Wage growth · gap (Vernumo calculation)-1.2ppSep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L17U.S. · Food price inflation / U.S. · Wage growth · gap a year earlier (Vernumo calculation)-1.1ppSep 2025U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L18U.S. · Food price inflation / U.S. · Wage growth · widest gap in 5 yrs (Vernumo calculation)8.1ppAug 2022U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L19U.S. · Food price inflation / U.S. · Wage growth · narrowest gap in 5 yrs (Vernumo calculation)-3.2ppJan 2024U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C121U.S. · Consumer price inflation3.7%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Other background figures (31)
IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
L1U.S. · Food price inflation · highest in 5 yrs (Vernumo calculation)13.5%Aug 2022U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L2U.S. · Food price inflation · lowest in 5 yrs (Vernumo calculation)0.9%Aug 2024U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L8U.S. · Wage growth · highest in 5 yrs (Vernumo calculation)5.9%Mar 2022U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
L12U.S. · Wage growth · share of readings below this in 5 yrs (Vernumo calculation)0%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C114U.S. · GDP growth2.16%2025World Bank
C115U.S. · House prices2.1%Q2 2026OECD
C116U.S. · Unemployment rate4.2%2025World Bank
C117U.S. · Fertility rate1.632024World Bank
C118U.S. · Share of population aged 65+18.39%2025World Bank
C119U.S. · Population growth0.52%2025World Bank
C120United States consumer price index (CPI-U, 1982-84=100)336.94Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C122U.S. · Diesel price5.43 $/galSep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C123U.S. · Electricity price per kWh0.2 $/kWhSep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C124U.S. · Electricity price inflation4.4%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C125U.S. · Energy price inflation20.4%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C127U.S. · Gas price inflation5%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C128U.S. · Gasoline price (regular)4.48 $/galSep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C129U.S. · Fuel price inflation34.2%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C130U.S. · Utility gas price1.7 $/thermSep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C131U.S. · Rent inflation2.8%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C132U.S. · Housing cost inflation3.2%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C133U.S. · Unemployment rate4.2%Sep 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
R4United States position among OECD member countries by unemployment rate, counted from the lowest (1 = lowest in the OECD)10Sep 2026OECD
R5number of OECD member countries with unemployment rate data for this period32Sep 2026OECD
R6United States unemployment rate, OECD comparison measure (OECD harmonised unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; can differ from the national release)4.2%Sep 2026OECD
R88United States position among OECD member countries by house price growth over 12 months, counted from the lowest (1 = lowest in the OECD)7Q2 2026OECD
R89number of OECD member countries with house price growth over 12 months data for this period31Q2 2026OECD
R90United States house price growth over 12 months, OECD comparison measure (OECD nominal house price index, 12-month change; can differ from the national release)2.1%Q2 2026OECD
R256United States position among OECD member countries by total fertility rate (births per woman), counted from the highest (1 = highest in the OECD)32024World Bank
R257number of OECD member countries with total fertility rate (births per woman) data for this period382024World Bank
R258United States total fertility rate (births per woman), OECD comparison measure (World Bank, total fertility rate; can differ from the national release)1.632024World Bank

Sources

  • Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — license
  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0) — license
  • Source: OECD, accessed 2026-11-05 — license

How this report was checked

  • Data: the newest reference period cited is Q2 2026.
  • Figures were collected from the source on
  • Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
  • Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
  • A separate quality-check model raised concerns, and the report was rewritten once to address them.
  • No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.

The source has since revised figures cited here (as collected → current):

  • United States average hourly earnings, private employees (12-month change) · Sep 2026: 3% → 3.2%
  • United States average price of diesel fuel (dollars per gallon) · Sep 2026: 5.43 $/gal → 5.426 $/gal
  • United States average price of electricity (dollars per kWh) · Sep 2026: 0.2 $/kWh → 0.196 $/kWh
  • United States average price of regular gasoline (dollars per gallon) · Sep 2026: 4.48 $/gal → 4.482 $/gal
Update history
  • 2026-11-05 13:03 UTC — created
  • 2026-11-05 13:03 UTC — approved+published

This analysis was written by AI from official statistics and passed automated checks. Last checked: 2026-11-05

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