EconomyIreland edition
Ireland food prices: 0.3% inflation in September 2026, below average
Food prices in Ireland were 0.3% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier, slightly above August's 0.1% but far below the 4.7% rate of September 2025. On Vernumo's own calculation from the official series, that is well under the ten-year average of 1.7% and a long way from the 13.3% peak first reached in February 2023.
The long view
- highest in 10 yrs
- 13.3% February 2023
- lowest in 10 yrs
- -2.8% August 2018
- 10-yr average
- 1.7%
- Readings below the latest figure
- 51%
Vernumo calculation
Ireland Food price inflation →
Food inflation is running at a fraction of its ten-year norm
Food prices in Ireland rose 0.3% over the 12 months to September 2026. Over the past ten years the annual rate has averaged 1.7%, so the latest reading sits well below what has been typical for Irish shoppers. That average, along with the ten-year high and low used in this analysis, is Vernumo's own calculation from the official series. F8+1
The range around that average has been wide. The rate fell as low as -2.8% in August 2018, when food was cheaper than a year before, and climbed to 13.3% in February 2023, a level matched by one later reading. September's 0.3% is much closer to the bottom of that span than the top. L2+2
From falling prices to a double-digit peak and back
August 2018 marks the low point of the decade, with food prices 2.8% lower than twelve months earlier. That was the last stretch on this series where shoppers saw outright annual declines at that scale. L2
February 2023 marks the other extreme. Food inflation reached 13.3% that month, the highest reading in ten years, and one later month matched it, so it was a plateau rather than a single spike. By September 2025 the rate had come down to 4.7%, still well above the ten-year average of 1.7%. L1+2
2026: a steady slide to near zero
The latest chapter began with food inflation at 3.4% in February 2026, then 2.3% in March and 2.1% in April. May's 1.2% was the first reading of the year below the ten-year average of 1.7%. F1+4
From June the rate dropped below 1% and stayed there: 0.5% in June, 0.6% in July, 0.1% in August and 0.3% in September. The small uptick in September leaves the annual rate barely above zero, and the four readings together show a level that has settled rather than one still falling fast. F5+3
What 0.3% means at the till in Ireland
On average, food in Ireland cost 0.3% more in September 2026 than in September 2025. A year earlier the same comparison showed a rise of 4.7%, so the pace at which grocery bills are climbing has slowed considerably over the past twelve months. F8+1
A low annual rate means prices are close to last year's level, not that they have returned to where they were before the 2023 surge. The figures here measure the yearly change only, so they cannot show how far today's food prices sit above their level of several years ago. F8+1
Gaps in the record and what annual rates hide
The facts here have no readings for October 2025 to January 2026, so the path between 4.7% and 3.4% is not shown. These are 12-month rates, so they cannot reveal whether food prices rose or fell from one month to the next. L4+1
AI analyst view
Little change expected medium confidence next 3 months
Estimate range: 0.0–1.0%
Why
- Momentum has faded: the rate fell from 3.4% in February to 0.5% by June and has held between 0.1% and 0.6% since, which points to a plateau near zero rather than a continuing slide. F1 F5 F6 F7 F8
- The 4.7% rate in September 2025 suggests prices were still rising briskly in late 2025, so the comparison base stays demanding and works against a sharp rebound in the annual rate. L4
- Food inflation tends to drift back towards its longer-run norm after big shocks, and at 0.3% the rate is already below the 1.7% ten-year average, which caps how much further it is likely to fall. F8 L3
What would change this view
- If the annual rate climbs back above 1.2%, the May level, the plateau view would be wrong and a renewed rise would be under way.
- If the rate turns negative, falling below the 0.1% reached in August, a move towards outright annual price declines would look more likely.
This is the AI’s own interpretation of the official figures above, not an official forecast. It may turn out wrong.
Scenarios to watch
- Scenario, not a forecast If food prices keep moving as they have since June, the annual rate would stay close to zero and remain below the ten-year average for the rest of 2026.
- Scenario, not a forecast If the months from late 2025 that drop out of the comparison had low price rises, the annual rate could edge back up towards 1% even without a fresh surge in prices.
- Scenario, not a forecast If monthly price declines become more common, the annual rate could slip below zero, something last seen at scale around 2018.
What to check next
- The October 2026 food inflation figure, to see if the rate stays below 1% for a fifth month
- Whether the annual rate moves back towards the ten-year average of 1.7%
- Readings for late 2025, which determine the base the coming months are compared against
Verified data used in this report
| Indicator | Value | Period | Sources | Accessed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Ireland · Food price inflation | 3.4% | Feb 2026 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| F2 | Ireland · Food price inflation | 2.3% | Mar 2026 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| F3 | Ireland · Food price inflation | 2.1% | Apr 2026 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| F4 | Ireland · Food price inflation | 1.2% | May 2026 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| F5 | Ireland · Food price inflation | 0.5% | Jun 2026 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| F6 | Ireland · Food price inflation | 0.6% | Jul 2026 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| F7 | Ireland · Food price inflation | 0.1% | Aug 2026 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| F8 | Ireland · Food price inflation | 0.3% | Sept 2026 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| L1 | Ireland · Food price inflation · highest in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 13.3% | Feb 2023 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| L2 | Ireland · Food price inflation · lowest in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | -2.8% | Aug 2018 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| L3 | Ireland · Food price inflation · 10-yr average (Vernumo calculation) | 1.7% | Sept 2026 | Eurostat (European Commission) | |
| L4 | Ireland · Food price inflation | 4.7% | Sept 2025 | Eurostat (European Commission) |
Other background figures (10)
| Indicator | Value | Period | Sources | Accessed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C71 | Ireland · House prices | 6% | Q2 2026 | OECD | |
| R166 | Ireland position among OECD member countries by real GDP growth, counted from the highest (1 = highest in the OECD) | 1 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R167 | number of OECD member countries with real GDP growth data for this period | 38 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R168 | Ireland real GDP growth, OECD comparison measure (World Bank, real GDP growth; can differ from the national release) | 12.34% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R286 | Ireland position among OECD member countries by population growth, counted from the highest (1 = highest in the OECD) | 1 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R287 | number of OECD member countries with population growth data for this period | 38 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R288 | Ireland population growth, OECD comparison measure (World Bank, population growth; can differ from the national release) | 1.63% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R343 | Ireland position among OECD member countries by share of population aged 65 and over, counted from the lowest (1 = lowest in the OECD) | 9 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R344 | number of OECD member countries with share of population aged 65 and over data for this period | 38 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R345 | Ireland share of population aged 65 and over, OECD comparison measure (World Bank, population aged 65 and over (% of total); can differ from the national release) | 16.21% | 2025 | World Bank |
Sources
How this report was checked
- Data: the newest reference period cited is Q2 2026.
- Figures were collected from the source on
- Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
- Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
- A separate quality-check model raised concerns that were recorded but not fully resolved.
- No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.
Update history
- 2026-11-05 08:03 UTC — created
- 2026-11-05 08:03 UTC — approved+published
This analysis was written by AI from official statistics and passed automated checks. Last checked: 2026-11-04