EconomyCanada edition
Canada food inflation 2.18%, September 2026: pay pulls ahead
Canada's food price inflation fell to 2.18% in September 2026, its fourth monthly decline in a row and the lowest reading since February 2025. In August 2026, the latest month with both figures, average weekly earnings were up 3.68% over 12 months, 0.83 points faster than food prices, after food had outpaced pay by 0.79 points a year earlier.
The long view
- highest in 10 yrs
- 10.43% January 2023
- lowest in 10 yrs
- -2.28% February 2017
- 10-yr average
- 3.48%
- Readings below the latest figure
- 33%
Vernumo calculation
Next official release: Consumer Price Index, October 2026 —
Are food prices in Canada rising faster than wages right now?
Pay is growing faster. In August 2026, the latest month for which both figures are out, average weekly earnings were 3.68% higher than a year earlier, while food prices were up 2.85%. Both are 12-month changes, meaning the comparison is with the same month a year before. F8+1
Vernumo's own calculation from the official series puts the gap at 0.83 percentage points in favour of pay. Food inflation has a newer reading, 2.18% in September 2026, but September earnings are not yet available, so the matched comparison stops at August. L14+1
How has the food-versus-pay gap changed since last year?
The gap has flipped. In August 2025 food prices were rising 0.79 points faster than weekly earnings; by August 2026 earnings were ahead by 0.83 points. Earnings growth did a good part of the work: it was 2.63% in August 2025 and 3.68% in August 2026. L15+3
Over the past ten years the gap has been far wider in both directions. Food led pay by as much as 7.92 points in February 2023, and pay led food by 7.05 points in May 2020. The current gap is small by those standards, and it now sits on the side where pay is ahead. L16+1
Is food inflation in Canada slowing down?
Yes, steadily. Food price inflation was 2.18% in September 2026, the fourth consecutive month in which the 12-month rate has fallen, down from 3.48% in June. It was 3.78% in September 2025. F4+3
The September reading is the lowest since February 2025, when the rate was 1.28%. It is below the ten-year average of 3.48%, though not unusually low: about a third of months in the past ten years, 33%, had a lower reading. L4+2
How do I know if my pay kept up with grocery prices?
Hold your own raise against two August 2026 figures. Pay that rose more than 2.85% over the year to August outpaced the average rise in food prices, and pay that rose less than 3.68% fell behind the average gain in weekly earnings. F3+1
These are yardsticks for which rose faster, not a measure of how much of a household's budget goes on food. A national food price index also does not show what any one family paid at the checkout. F3+1
What the matched months cannot tell you yet
Food prices are available to September 2026 but earnings only to August, so the latest food reading of 2.18% has no matching pay figure yet. Average weekly earnings also move with hours worked, not only with hourly pay rates. F4+1
AI analyst view
Little change expected low confidence next two releases (October and November 2026)
Estimate range: 1.8–2.6%
Why
- Four straight declines have taken food inflation from 3.48% to 2.18%. After a run like that, 12-month rates often level off rather than keep falling at the same speed, since the steepest easing tends to come early. L6 F1 F4
- The rate is already below its ten-year average of 3.48%, with only 33% of past-decade months lower, which leaves less room for a further large drop than when it sat near the top of its range. L3 L5
- Motor fuel prices were up 27.79% over the year to September. Transport costs usually feed into food prices with a lag, which tends to slow further easing in food inflation. C20
- Weekly earnings growth of 3.68% is above its ten-year average of 3.38%. Labour costs typically pass through gradually to food retailing and processing, another reason to expect a floor under the rate. F8 L10
What would change this view
- If food inflation climbs back above 2.85% in October or November
- If food inflation drops below 1.28%, the February 2025 level
- If earnings growth falls back below 2.63%
This is the AI’s own interpretation of the official figures above, not an official forecast. It may turn out wrong.
Scenarios to watch
- Scenario, not a forecast If September earnings growth holds near its August pace while food inflation stays around its September level, the gap in favour of pay would widen when both figures are next matched.
- Scenario, not a forecast If earnings growth drops back toward its level of a year earlier, the gap could narrow or swing back toward food even with food inflation lower.
What to check next
- October 2026 food price inflation in the next consumer price release
- September 2026 average weekly earnings, to update the matched gap
- Whether the food-minus-pay gap stays below zero
Verified data used in this report
| Indicator | Value | Period | Sources | Accessed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Canada · Food price inflation | 3.48% | Jun 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| F3 | Canada · Food price inflation | 2.85% | Aug 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| F4 | Canada · Food price inflation | 2.18% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| F8 | Canada · Wage growth | 3.68% | Aug 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| L3 | Canada · Food price inflation · 10-yr average (Vernumo calculation) | 3.48% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| L4 | Canada · Food price inflation · last this low (Vernumo calculation) | 1.28% | Feb 2025 | Statistics Canada | |
| L5 | Canada · Food price inflation · share of readings below this in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 33% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| L6 | Canada · Food price inflation · falls in a row (Vernumo calculation) | 4 | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| L7 | Canada · Food price inflation | 3.78% | Sep 2025 | Statistics Canada | |
| L10 | Canada · Wage growth · 10-yr average (Vernumo calculation) | 3.38% | Aug 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| L13 | Canada · Wage growth | 2.63% | Aug 2025 | Statistics Canada | |
| L14 | Canada · Food price inflation / Canada · Wage growth · gap (Vernumo calculation) | -0.83pp | Aug 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| L15 | Canada · Food price inflation / Canada · Wage growth · gap a year earlier (Vernumo calculation) | 0.79pp | Aug 2025 | Statistics Canada | |
| L16 | Canada · Food price inflation / Canada · Wage growth · widest gap in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 7.92pp | Feb 2023 | Statistics Canada | |
| L17 | Canada · Food price inflation / Canada · Wage growth · narrowest gap in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | -7.05pp | May 2020 | Statistics Canada | |
| C20 | Canada · Fuel price inflation | 27.79% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada |
Other background figures (31)
| Indicator | Value | Period | Sources | Accessed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F2 | Canada · Food price inflation | 3.05% | Jul 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| F5 | Canada · Wage growth | 3.33% | May 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| F6 | Canada · Wage growth | 3.39% | Jun 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| F7 | Canada · Wage growth | 3.2% | Jul 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| L1 | Canada · Food price inflation · highest in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 10.43% | Jan 2023 | Statistics Canada | |
| L2 | Canada · Food price inflation · lowest in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | -2.28% | Feb 2017 | Statistics Canada | |
| L8 | Canada · Wage growth · highest in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 10.12% | May 2020 | Statistics Canada | |
| L9 | Canada · Wage growth · lowest in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | -0.4% | May 2021 | Statistics Canada | |
| L11 | Canada · Wage growth · last this high (Vernumo calculation) | 4.27% | Apr 2025 | Statistics Canada | |
| L12 | Canada · Wage growth · share of readings below this in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation) | 67% | Aug 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| C16 | Canada · Consumer price inflation | 3.09% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| C17 | Canada · Electricity price inflation | 3.6% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| C18 | Canada · Energy price inflation | 18.95% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| C21 | Canada · Gas price inflation | -6.78% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| C22 | Canada · New home prices | -2.04% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| C23 | Canada · Central bank policy rate | 2.5% | Oct 2026 | Bank of Canada | |
| C24 | Canada · Rent inflation | 2.8% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| C25 | Canada · Housing cost inflation | 1.75% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| C26 | Canada · Unemployment rate | 6.5% | Sep 2026 | Statistics Canada | |
| C28 | Canada · GDP growth | 1.74% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| C29 | Canada · House prices | -3.5% | Q3 2026 | OECD | |
| C30 | Canada · Unemployment rate | 6.91% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| C31 | Canada · Fertility rate | 1.25 | 2024 | World Bank | |
| C32 | Canada · Share of population aged 65+ | 20.26% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| C33 | Canada · Population growth | 0.94% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R82 | Canada position among OECD member countries by house price growth over 12 months, counted from the lowest (1 = lowest in the OECD) | 1 | Q2 2026 | OECD | |
| R83 | number of OECD member countries with house price growth over 12 months data for this period | 31 | Q2 2026 | OECD | |
| R84 | Canada house price growth over 12 months, OECD comparison measure (OECD nominal house price index, 12-month change; can differ from the national release) | -4.3% | Q2 2026 | OECD | |
| R259 | Canada position among OECD member countries by population growth, counted from the highest (1 = highest in the OECD) | 10 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R260 | number of OECD member countries with population growth data for this period | 38 | 2025 | World Bank | |
| R261 | Canada population growth, OECD comparison measure (World Bank, population growth; can differ from the national release) | 0.94% | 2025 | World Bank |
Sources
How this report was checked
- Data: the newest reference period cited is Q3 2026.
- Figures were collected from the source on
- Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
- Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
- A separate quality-check model found no unsupported or speculative sentences.
- No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.
Update history
- 2026-11-06 12:01 UTC — created
- 2026-11-06 12:01 UTC — approved+published
This analysis was written by AI from official statistics and passed automated checks. Last checked: 2026-11-06