EconomyUK edition
UK house prices rise 3% over a year in 2026-Q2, up from 1.1% in the first quarter
For homeowners and buyers, the latest OECD figure shows that UK house prices in 2026-Q2 were 3% higher than a year earlier. That is a faster pace than in 2026-Q1, but slower than in many European countries.
- 2026-Q11.1%
- 2026-Q23%
What the latest figure shows
The OECD house price index for the United Kingdom rose by 3% over the 12 months to 2026-Q2. This is the most recent UK figure in the data.
In 2026-Q1, the same measure stood at 1.1%. The annual rate therefore rose by 1.9 percentage points from one quarter to the next.
Both figures compare prices with the same quarter a year earlier. The 1.9 percentage point change is the change in that annual rate, not a rise in prices over a single quarter.
How the UK compares with other countries
Among countries with figures for 2026-Q2, the UK sits in the middle. Portugal recorded 16.5%, Spain 12.2% and Denmark 9.4%.
A larger group saw prices rise by between 4% and 6.3%: Poland at 6.3%, Ireland at 6%, Austria at 5%, Sweden at 4.8%, Norway at 4.5%, Switzerland at 4.3% and Italy at 4%. All of these rose faster than the UK.
Sources for this paragraph (8)
- F6 Poland · House prices · 6.3% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F23 Ireland · House prices · 6% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F13 Austria · House prices · 5% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F7 Sweden · House prices · 4.8% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F18 Norway · House prices · 4.5% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F10 Switzerland · House prices · 4.3% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F22 Italy · House prices · 4% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F1 UK · House prices · 3% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
The UK rose faster than South Korea at 2.5%, Belgium at 2.2%, the United States at 2.1% and Germany at 0.6%. Prices fell in France, by -0.9%, and in Finland, by -2.7%.
Sources for this paragraph (7)
- F9 South Korea · House prices · 2.5% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F15 Belgium · House prices · 2.2% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F19 U.S. · House prices · 2.1% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F14 Germany · House prices · 0.6% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F11 France · House prices · -0.9% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F8 Finland · House prices · -2.7% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- F1 UK · House prices · 3% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
Some countries have figures for other quarters only, so they are not directly comparable. The Netherlands showed 6.1% and Japan 5% in 2025-Q4, Australia 10.3% in 2026-Q1, and Canada -3.5% in 2026-Q3.
What it means for people in the UK
For someone who owns a home, the index suggests that a typical property was worth 3% more in 2026-Q2 than a year before. For someone hoping to buy, the typical price was that much higher than a year earlier.
The pace picked up between the first and second quarters of 2026. Prices were growing faster in spring than at the start of the year.
Other UK figures describe the wider setting, but they measure different things over different periods. The Bank of England policy rate was 3.75% at the end of October 2026, and the unemployment rate was 4.7% in July 2026. These figures do not show how much of the house price change, if any, they explain.
Sources for this paragraph (2)
- C61 UK · Central bank policy rate · 3.75% · 2026-10 · Bank of England
- C69 UK · Unemployment rate · 4.7% · 2026-07 · Office for National Statistics (UK)
What the data does not tell us
The index is a national average. It does not show differences between regions, between flats and houses, or between first-time buyers and movers.
It does not show monthly mortgage costs, rents or whether homes have become more or less affordable. Rent and consumer price figures exist for the UK, but they come from different statistics and cannot be set against this index as if they measured the same thing.
Sources for this paragraph (3)
- F1 UK · House prices · 3% · 2026-Q2 · OECD
- C68 UK · Rent inflation · 4.2% · 2026-09 · Office for National Statistics (UK)
- C62 UK · Consumer price inflation · 3.5% · 2026-09 · Office for National Statistics (UK)
AI analyst view
Leaning up low confidence next quarterly release (2026-Q3)
Estimate range: 2.8–4.0%
Why
- Momentum points upwards. The annual rate moved from 1.1% to 3% in one quarter, and house price indices tend to change direction slowly, so a sudden reversal in the next quarter would be unusual. F2 F1 F3
- The labour market looks steady rather than weak. Unemployment at 4.7% and earnings growth of 3.7% are levels that usually support housing demand, although they are measured differently from house prices. C69 C70
- Most European peers are growing faster than the UK, with several between 4% and 6.3%. That suggests the UK reading is not out of line with the wider region and has room to edge higher. F1 F6 F23 F13 F7
- The ceiling on this estimate comes from borrowing costs. A policy rate of 3.75% is still high enough to restrain how quickly buyers can bid prices up. C61
What would change this view
- If the 2026-Q3 figure falls back towards the 1.1% seen in 2026-Q1
- If the Bank of England policy rate moves above 3.75%
- If average earnings growth drops below 3%
This is the AI’s own interpretation of the official figures above, not an official forecast. It may turn out wrong.
What to check next
- The OECD house price index for the UK in 2026-Q3, to see whether the 3% pace holds
- Bank of England policy rate decisions after the 3.75% level at the end of October 2026
- ONS earnings and unemployment releases, measured separately from house prices
- Updates for countries now missing 2026-Q2 figures, such as the Netherlands and Japan
Verified data used in this report
| Indicator | Value | Period | Sources | Accessed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | UK · House prices | 3% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F10 | Switzerland · House prices | 4.3% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F11 | France · House prices | -0.9% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F12 | Portugal · House prices | 16.5% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F13 | Austria · House prices | 5% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F14 | Germany · House prices | 0.6% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F15 | Belgium · House prices | 2.2% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F16 | Netherlands · House prices | 6.1% | 2025-Q4 | OECD | |
| F17 | Australia · House prices | 10.3% | 2026-Q1 | OECD | |
| F18 | Norway · House prices | 4.5% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F19 | U.S. · House prices | 2.1% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F2 | UK · House prices | 1.1% | 2026-Q1 | OECD | |
| F20 | Canada · House prices | -3.5% | 2026-Q3 | OECD | |
| F21 | Japan · House prices | 5% | 2025-Q4 | OECD | |
| F22 | Italy · House prices | 4% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F23 | Ireland · House prices | 6% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F3 | Change from previous period | 1.9pp | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F4 | Spain · House prices | 12.2% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F5 | Denmark · House prices | 9.4% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F6 | Poland · House prices | 6.3% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F7 | Sweden · House prices | 4.8% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F8 | Finland · House prices | -2.7% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| F9 | South Korea · House prices | 2.5% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | |
| C55 | UK · GDP growth | 1.39% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| C57 | UK · Unemployment rate | 4.75% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| C58 | UK · Fertility rate | 1.55 | 2024 | World Bank | |
| C59 | UK · Share of population aged 65+ | 19.7% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| C60 | UK · Population growth | 0.3% | 2025 | World Bank | |
| C61 | UK · Central bank policy rate | 3.75% | 2026-10 | Bank of England | |
| C62 | UK · Consumer price inflation | 3.5% | 2026-09 | Office for National Statistics (UK) | |
| C63 | UK · Housing cost inflation | 3.6% | 2026-09 | Office for National Statistics (UK) | |
| C64 | UK · Electricity price inflation | 3% | 2026-09 | Office for National Statistics (UK) | |
| C65 | UK · Food price inflation | 1.3% | 2026-09 | Office for National Statistics (UK) | |
| C66 | UK · Fuel price inflation | 29.8% | 2026-09 | Office for National Statistics (UK) | |
| C67 | UK · Gas price inflation | 9.8% | 2026-09 | Office for National Statistics (UK) | |
| C68 | UK · Rent inflation | 4.2% | 2026-09 | Office for National Statistics (UK) | |
| C69 | UK · Unemployment rate | 4.7% | 2026-07 | Office for National Statistics (UK) | |
| C70 | UK · Wage growth | 3.7% | 2026-08 | Office for National Statistics (UK) |
Sources
How this report was checked
- Data: the newest reference period cited is 2026-Q3.
- Figures were collected from the source on
- Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
- Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
- A separate quality-check model raised concerns, and the report was rewritten once to address them.
- No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.
Update history
- 2026-11-03 08:30 UTC — created
- 2026-11-03 08:30 UTC — approved+published
This analysis was written by AI from official statistics and passed automated checks. Last checked: 2026-11-03