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UK food inflation vs pay growth, August 2026: pay 2.4 points ahead

In August 2026 UK average weekly earnings grew 3.7% on a year earlier while food prices rose 1.3%, so pay ran 2.4 percentage points ahead of food inflation. A year before, food prices were rising 0.1 points faster than pay. The gap has narrowed slightly in recent months because pay growth has fallen for three months in a row.

Published 2 min read

UK · Food price inflationUK: Oct 2015 -2.7%, Nov 2015 -2.4%, Dec 2015 -2.9%, Jan 2016 -2.6%, Feb 2016 -2.3%, Mar 2016 -2.7%, Apr 2016 -2.5%, May 2016 -2.8%, Jun 2016 -2.9%, Jul 2016 -2.6%, Aug 2016 -2.2%, Sept 2016 -2.3%, Oct 2016 -2.4%, Nov 2016 -2%, Dec 2016 -1.1%, Jan 2017 -0.5%, Feb 2017 0.2%, Mar 2017 1.2%, Apr 2017 1.5%, May 2017 2.1%, Jun 2017 2.3%, Jul 2017 2.6%, Aug 2017 2.1%, Sept 2017 3%, Oct 2017 4%, Nov 2017 4.1%, Dec 2017 3.9%, Jan 2018 3.7%, Feb 2018 3%, Mar 2018 3%, Apr 2018 2.7%, May 2018 2.3%, Jun 2018 2%, Jul 2018 2.3%, Aug 2018 2.5%, Sept 2018 1.5%, Oct 2018 0.9%, Nov 2018 0.5%, Dec 2018 0.7%, Jan 2019 0.9%, Feb 2019 1.1%, Mar 2019 0.8%, Apr 2019 0.7%, May 2019 1%, Jun 2019 1.6%, Jul 2019 1.4%, Aug 2019 1.8%, Sept 2019 1.8%, Oct 2019 1.3%, Nov 2019 2.1%, Dec 2019 1.7%, Jan 2020 1.4%, Feb 2020 1.2%, Mar 2020 1.3%, Apr 2020 1.3%, May 2020 1.8%, Jun 2020 1.1%, Jul 2020 0.8%, Aug 2020 0.4%, Sept 2020 -0.1%, Oct 2020 0.6%, Nov 2020 -0.6%, Dec 2020 -1.4%, Jan 2021 -0.7%, Feb 2021 -0.6%, Mar 2021 -1.4%, Apr 2021 -0.4%, May 2021 -1.3%, Jun 2021 -0.6%, Jul 2021 -0.6%, Aug 2021 0.3%, Sept 2021 0.8%, Oct 2021 1.2%, Nov 2021 2.5%, Dec 2021 4.2%, Jan 2022 4.3%, Feb 2022 5.1%, Mar 2022 5.9%, Apr 2022 6.7%, May 2022 8.6%, Jun 2022 9.8%, Jul 2022 12.6%, Aug 2022 13.1%, Sept 2022 14.5%, Oct 2022 16.2%, Nov 2022 16.4%, Dec 2022 16.8%, Jan 2023 16.7%, Feb 2023 18%, Mar 2023 19.1%, Apr 2023 19%, May 2023 18.3%, Jun 2023 17.3%, Jul 2023 14.8%, Aug 2023 13.6%, Sept 2023 12.1%, Oct 2023 10.1%, Nov 2023 9.2%, Dec 2023 8%, Jan 2024 6.9%, Feb 2024 5%, Mar 2024 4%, Apr 2024 2.9%, May 2024 1.7%, Jun 2024 1.5%, Jul 2024 1.5%, Aug 2024 1.3%, Sept 2024 1.9%, Oct 2024 1.9%, Nov 2024 2%, Dec 2024 2%, Jan 2025 3.3%, Feb 2025 3.3%, Mar 2025 3%, Apr 2025 3.4%, May 2025 4.4%, Jun 2025 4.5%, Jul 2025 4.9%, Aug 2025 5.1%, Sept 2025 4.5%, Oct 2025 4.9%, Nov 2025 4.2%, Dec 2025 4.5%, Jan 2026 3.6%, Feb 2026 3.3%, Mar 2026 3.7%, Apr 2026 3%, May 2026 2.2%, Jun 2026 1.7%, Jul 2026 1.3%, Aug 2026 1.3%, Sept 2026 1.3% UK · Food price inflation % · Oct 2015–Sept 2026 -2.9%8.1%19.1%UK Oct 2015: -2.7%UK Nov 2015: -2.4%UK Dec 2015: -2.9%UK Jan 2016: -2.6%UK Feb 2016: -2.3%UK Mar 2016: -2.7%UK Apr 2016: -2.5%UK May 2016: -2.8%UK Jun 2016: -2.9%UK Jul 2016: -2.6%UK Aug 2016: -2.2%UK Sept 2016: -2.3%UK Oct 2016: -2.4%UK Nov 2016: -2%UK Dec 2016: -1.1%UK Jan 2017: -0.5%UK Feb 2017: 0.2%UK Mar 2017: 1.2%UK Apr 2017: 1.5%UK May 2017: 2.1%UK Jun 2017: 2.3%UK Jul 2017: 2.6%UK Aug 2017: 2.1%UK Sept 2017: 3%UK Oct 2017: 4%UK Nov 2017: 4.1%UK Dec 2017: 3.9%UK Jan 2018: 3.7%UK Feb 2018: 3%UK Mar 2018: 3%UK Apr 2018: 2.7%UK May 2018: 2.3%UK Jun 2018: 2%UK Jul 2018: 2.3%UK Aug 2018: 2.5%UK Sept 2018: 1.5%UK Oct 2018: 0.9%UK Nov 2018: 0.5%UK Dec 2018: 0.7%UK Jan 2019: 0.9%UK Feb 2019: 1.1%UK Mar 2019: 0.8%UK Apr 2019: 0.7%UK May 2019: 1%UK Jun 2019: 1.6%UK Jul 2019: 1.4%UK Aug 2019: 1.8%UK Sept 2019: 1.8%UK Oct 2019: 1.3%UK Nov 2019: 2.1%UK Dec 2019: 1.7%UK Jan 2020: 1.4%UK Feb 2020: 1.2%UK Mar 2020: 1.3%UK Apr 2020: 1.3%UK May 2020: 1.8%UK Jun 2020: 1.1%UK Jul 2020: 0.8%UK Aug 2020: 0.4%UK Sept 2020: -0.1%UK Oct 2020: 0.6%UK Nov 2020: -0.6%UK Dec 2020: -1.4%UK Jan 2021: -0.7%UK Feb 2021: -0.6%UK Mar 2021: -1.4%UK Apr 2021: -0.4%UK May 2021: -1.3%UK Jun 2021: -0.6%UK Jul 2021: -0.6%UK Aug 2021: 0.3%UK Sept 2021: 0.8%UK Oct 2021: 1.2%UK Nov 2021: 2.5%UK Dec 2021: 4.2%UK Jan 2022: 4.3%UK Feb 2022: 5.1%UK Mar 2022: 5.9%UK Apr 2022: 6.7%UK May 2022: 8.6%UK Jun 2022: 9.8%UK Jul 2022: 12.6%UK Aug 2022: 13.1%UK Sept 2022: 14.5%UK Oct 2022: 16.2%UK Nov 2022: 16.4%UK Dec 2022: 16.8%UK Jan 2023: 16.7%UK Feb 2023: 18%UK Mar 2023: 19.1%UK Apr 2023: 19%UK May 2023: 18.3%UK Jun 2023: 17.3%UK Jul 2023: 14.8%UK Aug 2023: 13.6%UK Sept 2023: 12.1%UK Oct 2023: 10.1%UK Nov 2023: 9.2%UK Dec 2023: 8%UK Jan 2024: 6.9%UK Feb 2024: 5%UK Mar 2024: 4%UK Apr 2024: 2.9%UK May 2024: 1.7%UK Jun 2024: 1.5%UK Jul 2024: 1.5%UK Aug 2024: 1.3%UK Sept 2024: 1.9%UK Oct 2024: 1.9%UK Nov 2024: 2%UK Dec 2024: 2%UK Jan 2025: 3.3%UK Feb 2025: 3.3%UK Mar 2025: 3%UK Apr 2025: 3.4%UK May 2025: 4.4%UK Jun 2025: 4.5%UK Jul 2025: 4.9%UK Aug 2025: 5.1%UK Sept 2025: 4.5%UK Oct 2025: 4.9%UK Nov 2025: 4.2%UK Dec 2025: 4.5%UK Jan 2026: 3.6%UK Feb 2026: 3.3%UK Mar 2026: 3.7%UK Apr 2026: 3%UK May 2026: 2.2%UK Jun 2026: 1.7%UK Jul 2026: 1.3%UK Aug 2026: 1.3%UK Sept 2026: 1.3%1.3%Oct 2015Apr 2021Sept 2026 Office for National Statistics (UK) https://vernumo.com/en-gb/a/uk-food-inflation-vs-pay-growth-august-2026-pay-2-4-points-ahead-1plnt
Office for National Statistics (UK)

The long view

highest in 10 yrs
19.1% March 2023
lowest in 10 yrs
-2.4% October 2016
10-yr average
4%
Readings below the latest figure
28%

Vernumo calculation

Next official release: Consumer price inflation, UK: October 2026 —

UK Food price inflation →

Pay is 2.4 points ahead of food prices

In August 2026 average weekly earnings were 3.7% higher than a year earlier, while food prices were 1.3% higher. Pay was therefore running 2.4 percentage points ahead of food inflation. Both are 12-month changes, meaning each compares a month with the same month a year before. The earnings figure is a three-month average. The gap is Vernumo's own calculation from the official series. L14+2

A year earlier the picture was reversed. In August 2025 food prices were rising 0.1 points faster than pay, so the two were close to level. Pay has since moved clearly ahead. L15

Against the past ten years, the current gap is moderate rather than extreme. In March 2023 food inflation ran 12.9 points ahead of pay, while in June 2021 pay ran 9.5 points ahead of food. L16+1

The gap is narrowing from the pay side

The latest movement in the gap comes from earnings rather than food. Earnings growth has eased for three consecutive months, from 4.4% in May to 4.2% in June and 3.9% in July. Food inflation fell from 1.7% in June and then held flat in July and August. As a result, the gap narrowed slightly in August. L12+6

The slowdown in pay has taken earnings growth to its lowest reading since November 2020. It is now below its ten-year average of 4.3%, and 39% of months in the past decade had a lower rate. A year earlier, in August 2025, earnings were growing at 5%. L10+3

Food inflation is low by its own standards

Food prices were 1.3% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier, unchanged from August. That is low for this series. Only 28% of months in the past ten years had a lower rate. F4+1

Food inflation has been below its ten-year average of 4% for nine consecutive months. In September 2025 it stood at 4.5%. The narrow food-price side is therefore what keeps the gap open, even as pay growth softens. L5+2

Average pay is outrunning the food bill

For people in the UK, the figures mean that average weekly earnings grew faster than food prices in the year to August 2026. On average, a pay packet stretched further at the shops than a year earlier. That was not the case in August 2025, when food was rising slightly faster than pay. L14+1

The cushion is getting thinner from the earnings side, because pay growth has slowed for three months running. The data cover only averages for earnings and food prices. They do not show how any group of households is faring, or how other bills compare. L12

Two measures, two calendars

Food inflation is available to September, but earnings only to August, so the gap is measured for August. The gap also sets a monthly price index against a three-month average of earnings, so it is a rough guide rather than a measure of real income. F4+2

AI analyst view

Leaning up low confidence next two earnings releases

Estimate range: -2.6 to -1.8 pp

Why

  • Pay momentum is clearly downward. Three consecutive falls have taken earnings growth from 4.4% to its lowest since November 2020, and a further easing would move the gap towards zero. L12 F5 F8 L10
  • Food inflation has held at the same rate for three readings to September. On the price side, that gives little reason to expect the gap to widen again. F2 F3 F4
  • Food inflation sits well below its ten-year average, with only 28% of months lower. That leaves more room for the gap to narrow from the food side than to widen. L3 L4 L5

What would change this view

  • If earnings growth climbs back to 4.2% or above
  • If food inflation drops below 1% while pay steadies

This is the AI’s own interpretation of the official figures above, not an official forecast. It may turn out wrong.

Scenarios to watch

  • Scenario, not a forecast If earnings growth keeps easing while food inflation stays near its recent low, the gap would continue to close gradually.
  • Scenario, not a forecast If food prices start rising faster towards their ten-year average while pay stabilises, the gap could close more quickly, and food could move back ahead of pay.

What to check next

  • The September earnings figure and whether pay growth falls for a fourth month
  • Whether food inflation moves off its recent flat reading
  • Whether the gap turns positive again, with food ahead of pay

Verified data used in this report

IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
F1UK · Food price inflation1.7%Jun 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
F2UK · Food price inflation1.3%Jul 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
F3UK · Food price inflation1.3%Aug 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
F4UK · Food price inflation1.3%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
F5UK · Wage growth4.4%May 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
F6UK · Wage growth4.2%Jun 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
F7UK · Wage growth3.9%Jul 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
F8UK · Wage growth3.7%Aug 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
L3UK · Food price inflation · 10-yr average (Vernumo calculation)4%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
L4UK · Food price inflation · share of readings below this in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation)28%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
L5UK · Food price inflation · readings in a row below the 10-yr average (Vernumo calculation)9Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
L6UK · Food price inflation4.5%Sept 2025Office for National Statistics (UK)
L9UK · Wage growth · 10-yr average (Vernumo calculation)4.3%Aug 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
L10UK · Wage growth · last this low (Vernumo calculation)3.7%Nov 2020Office for National Statistics (UK)
L11UK · Wage growth · share of readings below this in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation)39%Aug 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
L12UK · Wage growth · falls in a row (Vernumo calculation)3Aug 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
L13UK · Wage growth5%Aug 2025Office for National Statistics (UK)
L14UK · Food price inflation / UK · Wage growth · gap (Vernumo calculation)-2.4ppAug 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
L15UK · Food price inflation / UK · Wage growth · gap a year earlier (Vernumo calculation)0.1ppAug 2025Office for National Statistics (UK)
L16UK · Food price inflation / UK · Wage growth · widest gap in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation)12.9ppMar 2023Office for National Statistics (UK)
L17UK · Food price inflation / UK · Wage growth · narrowest gap in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation)-9.5ppJun 2021Office for National Statistics (UK)
Other background figures (24)
IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
L1UK · Food price inflation · highest in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation)19.1%Mar 2023Office for National Statistics (UK)
L2UK · Food price inflation · lowest in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation)-2.4%Oct 2016Office for National Statistics (UK)
L7UK · Wage growth · highest in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation)8.9%Jun 2021Office for National Statistics (UK)
L8UK · Wage growth · lowest in 10 yrs (Vernumo calculation)-1.2%Jun 2020Office for National Statistics (UK)
C55UK · GDP growth1.39%2025World Bank
C56UK · House prices3%Q2 2026OECD
C57UK · Unemployment rate4.75%2025World Bank
C58UK · Fertility rate1.552024World Bank
C59UK · Share of population aged 65+19.7%2025World Bank
C60UK · Population growth0.3%2025World Bank
C61UK · Central bank policy rate3.75%Oct 2026Bank of England
C62UK · Consumer price inflation3.5%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C63UK · Housing cost inflation3.6%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C64UK · Electricity price inflation3%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C66UK · Fuel price inflation29.8%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C67UK · Gas price inflation9.8%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C68UK · Rent inflation4.2%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C69UK · Unemployment rate4.7%Jul 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
R118United Kingdom position among OECD member countries by house price growth over 12 months, counted from the lowest (1 = lowest in the OECD)10Q2 2026OECD
R119number of OECD member countries with house price growth over 12 months data for this period31Q2 2026OECD
R120United Kingdom house price growth over 12 months, OECD comparison measure (OECD nominal house price index, 12-month change; can differ from the national release)3%Q2 2026OECD
R214United Kingdom position among OECD member countries by total fertility rate (births per woman), counted from the highest (1 = highest in the OECD)82024World Bank
R215number of OECD member countries with total fertility rate (births per woman) data for this period382024World Bank
R216United Kingdom total fertility rate (births per woman), OECD comparison measure (World Bank, total fertility rate; can differ from the national release)1.552024World Bank

Sources

  • Source: Office for National Statistics, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 — license
  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0) — license
  • Source: OECD, accessed 2026-11-05 — license
  • Source: Bank of England, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 — license

How this report was checked

  • Data: the newest reference period cited is Q2 2026.
  • Figures were collected from the source on
  • Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
  • Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
  • A separate quality-check model raised concerns, and the report was rewritten once to address them.
  • No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.
Update history
  • 2026-11-05 12:02 UTC — created
  • 2026-11-05 12:02 UTC — approved+published

This analysis was written by AI from official statistics and passed automated checks. Last checked: 2026-11-05

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