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UK birth rate 1.55 in 2024, lowest in nine years

The UK fertility rate fell to 1.55 births per woman in 2024, down from 1.8 in 2015 and the lowest reading in the past nine years. Separately, people aged 65 and over made up 19.7% of the population in 2025, a share that has risen for nine consecutive years.

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UK · Share of population aged 65+UK: 2016 17.92%, 2017 18.07%, 2018 18.26%, 2019 18.46%, 2020 18.61%, 2021 18.72%, 2022 18.93%, 2023 19.24%, 2024 19.5%, 2025 19.7% UK · Share of population aged 65+ % · 2016–2025 0%9.85%19.7%UK 2016: 17.92%UK 2017: 18.07%UK 2018: 18.26%UK 2019: 18.46%UK 2020: 18.61%UK 2021: 18.72%UK 2022: 18.93%UK 2023: 19.24%UK 2024: 19.5%UK 2025: 19.7%19.7%201620212025 World Bank https://vernumo.com/en-gb/a/uk-birth-rate-1-55-in-2024-lowest-in-nine-years-1hwh1
World Bank

The long view

highest in 9 yrs
19.7% 2025
lowest in 9 yrs
17.92% 2016
9-yr average
18.74%
Readings below the latest figure
100%

Vernumo calculation

UK Share of population aged 65+ →

Fewer births per woman, a steadily larger older group

The UK fertility rate was 1.55 births per woman in 2024, down from 1.8 in 2015. According to Vernumo's own calculation from the official series, 2024 is the lowest reading of the past nine years, and the rate has been below its nine-year average of 1.65 for six years in a row. F20+4

The fall was not completely smooth. The rate edged up from 1.57 in 2020 to 1.58 in 2021, then held at 1.56 in both 2022 and 2023 before slipping again. F16+4

The older population followed a different path, with no pause at all. People aged 65 and over made up 17.92% of the population in 2016 and 19.7% in 2025. That share has risen for nine consecutive years and is the highest of the past nine years. F1+3

What the two series mean for people in the UK

In 2025, people aged 65 and over accounted for 19.7% of UK residents. That is above the nine-year average of 18.74% and has been above it for four years running. On births, the 2024 rate of 1.55 per woman is a useful yardstick: compared with the 1.8 recorded in 2015, an average woman in the UK is now expected to have fewer children over her lifetime. F10+4

These figures describe the make-up of the population. They do not measure the cost of pensions or care, the pressure on public services or how many people are in work. F10+1

Two series, two different end years

The fertility series ends in 2024 and the older-population share ends in 2025, so the latest readings cover different years. The 65-and-over figure is a share of the total population, so it rises whenever that age group grows faster than the rest, and it says nothing about birth numbers on its own terms. F20+1

Scenarios to watch

  • Scenario, not a forecast If the fertility rate for 2025 comes in at or below 1.55, the run of years below the nine-year average would lengthen.
  • Scenario, not a forecast If the 65-and-over share rises again in the next annual reading, the series would extend its run of yearly increases beyond nine.

What to check next

  • The fertility rate for 2025 when the annual series is updated
  • Whether the ONS national release differs from this series
  • Annual population growth alongside the older-age share

Verified data used in this report

IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
F1UK · Share of population aged 65+17.92%2016World Bank
F10UK · Share of population aged 65+19.7%2025World Bank
F11UK · Fertility rate1.82015World Bank
F16UK · Fertility rate1.572020World Bank
F17UK · Fertility rate1.582021World Bank
F18UK · Fertility rate1.562022World Bank
F19UK · Fertility rate1.562023World Bank
F20UK · Fertility rate1.552024World Bank
L1UK · Share of population aged 65+ · highest in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation)19.7%2025World Bank
L3UK · Share of population aged 65+ · 9-yr average (Vernumo calculation)18.74%2025World Bank
L5UK · Share of population aged 65+ · readings in a row above the 9-yr average (Vernumo calculation)42025World Bank
L6UK · Share of population aged 65+ · rises in a row (Vernumo calculation)92025World Bank
L8UK · Fertility rate · lowest in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation)1.552024World Bank
L9UK · Fertility rate · 9-yr average (Vernumo calculation)1.652024World Bank
L11UK · Fertility rate · readings in a row below the 9-yr average (Vernumo calculation)62024World Bank
Other background figures (36)
IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
F12UK · Fertility rate1.792016World Bank
F13UK · Fertility rate1.742017World Bank
F14UK · Fertility rate1.682018World Bank
F15UK · Fertility rate1.632019World Bank
F2UK · Share of population aged 65+18.07%2017World Bank
F3UK · Share of population aged 65+18.26%2018World Bank
F4UK · Share of population aged 65+18.46%2019World Bank
F5UK · Share of population aged 65+18.61%2020World Bank
F6UK · Share of population aged 65+18.72%2021World Bank
F7UK · Share of population aged 65+18.93%2022World Bank
F8UK · Share of population aged 65+19.24%2023World Bank
F9UK · Share of population aged 65+19.5%2024World Bank
L2UK · Share of population aged 65+ · lowest in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation)17.92%2016World Bank
L4UK · Share of population aged 65+ · share of readings below this in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation)100%2025World Bank
L7UK · Fertility rate · highest in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation)1.82015World Bank
L10UK · Fertility rate · share of readings below this in 9 yrs (Vernumo calculation)0%2024World Bank
C55UK · GDP growth1.39%2025World Bank
C56UK · House prices3%Q2 2026OECD
C57UK · Unemployment rate4.75%2025World Bank
C60UK · Population growth0.3%2025World Bank
C61UK · Central bank policy rate3.75%Oct 2026Bank of England
C62UK · Consumer price inflation3.5%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C63UK · Housing cost inflation3.6%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C64UK · Electricity price inflation3%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C65UK · Food price inflation1.3%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C66UK · Fuel price inflation29.8%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C67UK · Gas price inflation9.8%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C68UK · Rent inflation4.2%Sept 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C69UK · Unemployment rate4.7%Jul 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
C70UK · Wage growth3.7%Aug 2026Office for National Statistics (UK)
R115United Kingdom position among OECD member countries by house price growth over 12 months, counted from the lowest (1 = lowest in the OECD)10Q2 2026OECD
R116number of OECD member countries with house price growth over 12 months data for this period31Q2 2026OECD
R117United Kingdom house price growth over 12 months, OECD comparison measure (OECD nominal house price index, 12-month change; can differ from the national release)3%Q2 2026OECD
R211United Kingdom position among OECD member countries by total fertility rate (births per woman), counted from the highest (1 = highest in the OECD)82024World Bank
R212number of OECD member countries with total fertility rate (births per woman) data for this period382024World Bank
R213United Kingdom total fertility rate (births per woman), OECD comparison measure (World Bank, total fertility rate; can differ from the national release)1.552024World Bank

Sources

  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0) — license
  • Source: OECD, accessed 2026-11-06 — license
  • Source: Bank of England, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 — license
  • Source: Office for National Statistics, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 — license

How this report was checked

  • Data: the newest reference period cited is Q2 2026.
  • Figures were collected from the source on
  • Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
  • Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
  • A separate quality-check model raised concerns, and the report was rewritten once to address them.
  • An independent AI model (claude-sonnet-5-5), different from the writer, reviewed it before publication and approved it.
  • No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.
Update history
  • 2026-11-06 12:01 UTC — created
  • 2026-11-06 12:01 UTC — held: blocking quality issue
  • 2026-11-06 12:15 UTC — 2차 판단: 공개
  • 2026-11-06 12:15 UTC — approved+published

This analysis was written by AI from official statistics and passed automated checks. Last checked: 2026-11-06

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