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US prices and pay, June to September 2026: prices grew faster every month

From June to September 2026, the 12-month rise in US consumer prices was larger than the 12-month rise in average hourly pay in every month.

Published 2 min read

  • 2026-063.5%
  • 2026-073.4%
  • 2026-083.4%
  • 2026-093.7%
United States consumer price inflation (CPI-U, 12-month change) · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Consumer price inflation →

What the latest figures show

For a typical US household, prices went up faster than average hourly pay over the summer of 2026. In September 2026, consumer prices were 3.7% higher than in September a year earlier. Average hourly earnings for private employees were 3% higher than a year earlier.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

Both figures are 12-month changes. Each one compares a month with the same month one year before. Neither is a change from the previous month.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

Month by month, June to September 2026

Consumer prices (CPI-U, 12-month change): 3.5% in June 2026, 3.4% in July, 3.4% in August and 3.7% in September. The September rate was higher than the August rate.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

Average hourly earnings, private employees (12-month change): 3.4% in June 2026, 3.2% in July, 3.1% in August and 3% in September. The 12-month rate was lower in each month than in the month before.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

Prices against pay in the same month

In June 2026, the price rate of 3.5% was just above the pay rate of 3.4%. In July, prices were at 3.4% and pay at 3.2%. In August, prices were at 3.4% and pay at 3.1%.

Sources for this paragraph (6)

In September 2026, the price rate was 3.7% and the pay rate was 3%. That is the widest distance between the two in these four months.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

What this means for people in the United States

If your hourly pay grew in line with the average, it was 3% higher in September 2026 than a year before. Over the same 12 months, the overall price level was 3.7% higher. On average, an hour of work bought a little less than it did a year earlier.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

This is an average. Many workers had raises larger or smaller than 3%, and each household buys a different mix of goods. The figures cannot tell you how your own budget changed.

Sources for this paragraph (1)

What the data does and does not show

The price and pay figures come from different official measures. Setting them side by side gives a rough picture, not an official calculation of inflation-adjusted pay.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

The pay figure covers hourly earnings of private employees only. It leaves out government workers and does not reflect changes in hours worked, so it is not the same as total household income.

Sources for this paragraph (1)

The facts here do not explain why prices or pay moved the way they did. This report does not offer a cause.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

Scenarios to watch

  • Scenario, not a forecast If a later month shows a CPI 12-month rate below that month's earnings 12-month rate, the pattern seen from June to September 2026 would reverse for that month.
  • Scenario, not a forecast If the CPI 12-month rate stays above the earnings 12-month rate in coming months, average hourly pay in those months would still buy less than a year earlier.

What to check next

  • The next monthly CPI-U release and whether its 12-month rate is above or below 3.7%
  • The next average hourly earnings release for private employees and whether its 12-month rate is above or below 3%
  • Whether the two rates move closer together or further apart in the same month

Verified data used in this report

IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
F1United States consumer price inflation (CPI-U, 12-month change)3.5%2026-06U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F2United States consumer price inflation (CPI-U, 12-month change)3.4%2026-07U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F3United States consumer price inflation (CPI-U, 12-month change)3.4%2026-08U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F4United States consumer price inflation (CPI-U, 12-month change)3.7%2026-09U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F5United States average hourly earnings, private employees (12-month change)3.4%2026-06U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F6United States average hourly earnings, private employees (12-month change)3.2%2026-07U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F7United States average hourly earnings, private employees (12-month change)3.1%2026-08U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
F8United States average hourly earnings, private employees (12-month change)3%2026-09U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C44United States GDP growth (annual %)2.16%2025World Bank
C45United States Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)4.2%2025World Bank
C46United States Fertility rate, total (births per woman)1.632024World Bank
C47United States Population aged 65 and above (% of total population)18.39%2025World Bank
C48United States Population growth (annual %)0.52%2025World Bank
C50United States energy price inflation (12-month change)20.4%2026-09U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C51United States food price inflation (12-month change)1.8%2026-09U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C52United States motor fuel price inflation (12-month change)34.2%2026-09U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C53United States shelter prices (CPI, 12-month change)3.2%2026-09U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C54United States unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)4.2%2026-09U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Sources

  • Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — license
  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0) — license

How this report was checked

  • Data: the newest reference period cited is 2026-09.
  • Figures were collected from the source on
  • Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
  • Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
  • A separate quality-check model raised concerns, and the report was rewritten once to address them.
  • No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.
Update history
  • 2026-10-28 12:00 UTC — created
  • 2026-10-28 12:00 UTC — approved+published

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