What-if scenarios

AI-built hypothetical scenarios that start from official statistics and step through what could happen next. They are not forecasts.

• Hypothetical What if a Taiwan Strait crisis cut off advanced chips? Three US scenarios
  This is an AI-generated hypothetical, not a forecast. It imagines a crisis that halts most shipments of advanced chips from Taiwan for months, then walks through three paths (mild, central and severe) for US factories, prices, jobs and daily life, with Japan and South Korea as points of comparison. Official data shows the US entering this imagined shock with positive but slowing growth, a modest reliance on exports, and a rising share of high-tech goods in its manufactured exports. South Korea's export mix is far more tech-heavy, and Japan's is less so. How deep the damage goes depends mostly on how long the disruption lasts and how quickly other suppliers can fill the gap.
• Hypothetical What if US–China trade stopped? Three scenarios for American households
  This hypothetical explores what could happen in the United States if most trade with China came to a halt. Using official figures on trade, the size of both economies and recent inflation, we sketch three paths: a managed detour, a costly rewiring and a chain reaction. Each shows how prices, jobs, supply chains and daily life might shift over several years. These are illustrations, not forecasts.