Data · What if the trend continues?
Wage growth in the U.S.: what if the recent trend continues?
Wage growth in the U.S. keeps falling in the latest official figures. Here is what it would mean in everyday money if that pace carried on — and if it slowed or stopped.
Monthly pay
| Path | Today | In 1 year | In 3 years | In 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recent pace continues +3.49% a year | $5,000 | $5,175 | $5,542 | $5,936 |
| Pace halves +1.75% a year | $5,000 | $5,088 | $5,267 | $5,453 |
| Stops changing 0% a year | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 |
At the recent pace, monthly pay of $5,000 would grow to about $5,936 in 5 years. Whether that feels better depends on prices over the same years.
How this is calculated
- Price and pay figures are 12-month changes. Each path applies one yearly rate to your amount: the average of the last 12 months, half of it, or no change. Unemployment paths move the rate by the change over the last year, half of it, or not at all.
- This is arithmetic, not a forecast. Official figures rarely move in a straight line, and your own costs depend on what you buy and where you live.