Data · What if the trend continues?
Unemployment rate in the U.S.: what if the recent trend continues?
Unemployment rate in the U.S. has no clear direction in the latest official figures. Here is what it would mean in everyday money if that pace carried on — and if it slowed or stopped.
Out of work per 1,000 people in the labour force
| Path | Today | In 1 year | In 3 years | In 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recent pace continues -0.1 pp a year | 42 | 41 | 39 | 37 |
| Pace halves -0.05 pp a year | 42 | 42 | 41 | 40 |
| Stops changing 0 pp a year | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
At the recent pace, about 39 in every 1,000 people in the labour force would be out of work in 3 years, compared with 42 today.
How this is calculated
- Price and pay figures are 12-month changes. Each path applies one yearly rate to your amount: the average of the last 12 months, half of it, or no change. Unemployment paths move the rate by the change over the last year, half of it, or not at all.
- This is arithmetic, not a forecast. Official figures rarely move in a straight line, and your own costs depend on what you buy and where you live.