What-if scenarios

AI-built hypothetical scenarios that start from official statistics and step through what could happen next. They are not forecasts.

• Hypothetical If a wider war in Europe cut energy supplies: three UK scenarios
  This hypothetical explores what could happen to UK household energy bills, prices, jobs and industry if a wider conflict in Europe sharply reduced gas and power supplies, compared with Germany. The UK starts from a weaker position than a few years ago: it relied on net imports for 47.56% of its energy use in 2024, up from 43.44% in 2023, and its inflation was already running at 3.88% in 2025. Germany depends far more on imports (70.26% in 2024) but went into the shock with lower inflation (2.17% in 2025). Three paths, mild, central and severe, show how the outcome depends on how long supplies stay tight, how far prices reach households and how governments respond. These are illustrations, not forecasts.
• Hypothetical If the UK rejoined the EU: three economic scenarios
  A hypothetical walk-through of what could follow if the UK applied to rejoin the European Union and was accepted. Starting from official figures on trade, growth and inflation, three paths (mild, central and severe) trace possible effects on trade flows, prices, jobs and household budgets. These are illustrations, not forecasts, and the official data cannot say which path is most likely.