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UK unemployment on the ILO modelled measure: 4.75% in 2025, and how it compares

The UK's unemployment rate on the ILO modelled estimate rose from 4.36% in 2024 to 4.75% in 2025. That is higher than in the United States, Australia, Japan and South Korea, and lower than in Canada.

Published 1 min read

  • 20244.36%
  • 20254.75%
United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · World Bank

UK Unemployment rate →

What happened

For an ordinary household, the latest annual figure means a larger share of the UK's labour force was out of work in 2025 than a year earlier. On the ILO modelled estimate, unemployment stood at 4.75% of the labour force in 2025.

Sources for this paragraph (1)
  • F1 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.75% · 2025 · World Bank

In 2024 the same measure was 4.36%. The rate therefore went up between the two years.

Sources for this paragraph (2)
  • F2 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.36% · 2024 · World Bank
  • F1 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.75% · 2025 · World Bank

What the official figures show

The figure is an annual rate. It is the share of the labour force without work, expressed in per cent, for the calendar year 2025.

Sources for this paragraph (1)
  • F1 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.75% · 2025 · World Bank

The change from the previous period was 0.39 percentage points. This compares 2025 with 2024. It is not a monthly movement.

Sources for this paragraph (1)
  • F3 Change from previous period (percentage points) · 0.39pp · 2025 · World Bank

How the UK compares with five other countries

All the figures in this section use the same ILO modelled estimate for 2025. Canada had the highest rate of the group at 6.91%. The UK followed at 4.75%.

Sources for this paragraph (2)
  • F5 Canada Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 6.91% · 2025 · World Bank
  • F1 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.75% · 2025 · World Bank

The United States was at 4.2% and Australia at 4.09%. Both were below the UK.

Sources for this paragraph (3)
  • F8 United States Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.2% · 2025 · World Bank
  • F4 Australia Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.09% · 2025 · World Bank
  • F1 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.75% · 2025 · World Bank

South Korea, at 2.68%, and Japan, at 2.45%, had the lowest rates of the six countries.

Sources for this paragraph (2)
  • F7 South Korea Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 2.68% · 2025 · World Bank
  • F6 Japan Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 2.45% · 2025 · World Bank

What it means for people in the UK

For people living in the UK, the 2025 figure points to a somewhat tougher job market than in 2024. The share of the labour force without work rose from 4.36% to 4.75%.

Sources for this paragraph (2)
  • F2 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.36% · 2024 · World Bank
  • F1 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.75% · 2025 · World Bank

The economy still grew over the same year. GDP growth was 1.39% in 2025. The figures provided do not show how the two are linked, so this analysis does not draw a connection between them.

Sources for this paragraph (2)
  • C23 United Kingdom GDP growth (annual %) · 1.39% · 2025 · World Bank
  • F1 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.75% · 2025 · World Bank

What the data does not tell us

This is a single annual estimate for the whole country. It does not show which regions, age groups or industries were most affected.

Sources for this paragraph (1)
  • F1 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.75% · 2025 · World Bank

The figures do not explain why unemployment rose. They also do not show how long people stayed out of work.

Sources for this paragraph (2)
  • F1 United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate) · 4.75% · 2025 · World Bank
  • F3 Change from previous period (percentage points) · 0.39pp · 2025 · World Bank

The UK also publishes a seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate. That is a different statistic, measured differently, so it should not be set side by side with the annual ILO modelled estimate as if they were the same thing.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

Scenarios to watch

  • Scenario, not a forecast If the next annual ILO modelled estimate comes in above 4.75%, the UK would have recorded a second year of rising unemployment on this measure.
  • Scenario, not a forecast If the next annual estimate is at or below 4.75%, the rise seen in 2025 would not have continued into the following year on this measure.

What to check next

  • The ILO modelled unemployment estimate for 2026, to see whether the rate moves from 4.75%.
  • The UK's official monthly labour market statistics, bearing in mind they are measured differently from the annual ILO estimate.
  • The annual GDP growth figure for 2026, compared with 1.39% in 2025.
  • How the UK's position changes against Canada, the United States, Australia, Japan and South Korea in the next annual release.

Verified data used in this report

IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
F1United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)4.75%2025World Bank
F2United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)4.36%2024World Bank
F3Change from previous period (percentage points)0.39pp2025World Bank
F4Australia Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)4.09%2025World Bank
F5Canada Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)6.91%2025World Bank
F6Japan Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)2.45%2025World Bank
F7South Korea Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)2.68%2025World Bank
F8United States Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)4.2%2025World Bank
C23United Kingdom GDP growth (annual %)1.39%2025World Bank
C25United Kingdom Fertility rate, total (births per woman)1.552024World Bank
C26United Kingdom Population aged 65 and above (% of total population)19.7%2025World Bank
C27United Kingdom Population growth (annual %)0.3%2025World Bank
C28United Kingdom central bank policy rate (month-end)3.75%2026-09Bank of England
C29United Kingdom consumer price inflation (12-month change)3.5%2026-09Office for National Statistics (UK)
C30United Kingdom CPIH inflation, including owner occupiers' housing costs (12-month change)3.6%2026-09Office for National Statistics (UK)
C31United Kingdom food price inflation (12-month change)1.3%2026-09Office for National Statistics (UK)
C32United Kingdom unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)4.7%2026-07Office for National Statistics (UK)
C33United Kingdom average weekly earnings growth (3-month average, 12-month change)3.7%2026-08Office for National Statistics (UK)

Sources

  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0) — license
  • Source: Bank of England, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 — license
  • Source: Office for National Statistics, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 — license

How this report was checked

  • Data: the newest reference period cited is 2026-09.
  • Figures were collected from the source on
  • Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
  • Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
  • A separate quality-check model raised concerns, and the report was rewritten once to address them.
  • No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.
  • The report has been regenerated 1 time(s); see the update history.
Update history
  • 2026-10-27 08:01 UTC — created
  • 2026-10-29 14:30 UTC — regenerated
  • 2026-10-29 14:30 UTC — approved+published

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