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UK prices and pay: what the latest official figures show

The UK's CPIH inflation rate, which includes owner occupiers' housing costs, rose in each month from June to September 2026, while annual growth in average weekly earnings fell in each month from May to August 2026.

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  • 2026-062.8%
  • 2026-073.1%
  • 2026-083.3%
  • 2026-093.6%
United Kingdom CPIH inflation, including owner occupiers' housing costs (12-month change) · Office for National Statistics (UK)

UK Housing cost inflation →

Two measures moving in opposite directions

For an ordinary household, the latest figures show two separate trends. The official measure of prices that includes housing costs for owner occupiers has climbed for several months in a row. The official measure of growth in average weekly pay has fallen over a similar stretch.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

These are two different statistics. One tracks prices and the other tracks earnings. They also cover slightly different months, so this analysis sets them side by side rather than subtracting one from the other.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

What the official figures show

CPIH measures how much more a basket of goods and services costs than it did 12 months earlier, and it includes owner occupiers' housing costs. The 12-month CPIH rate was 2.8% in June 2026, 3.1% in July, 3.3% in August and 3.6% in September.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

Average weekly earnings growth is measured as a 3-month average compared with the same period a year earlier. It was 4.4% in May 2026, 4.2% in June, 3.9% in July and 3.7% in August.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

The Bank of England's policy rate stood at 3.75% at the end of September 2026. The figures here do not show what effect, if any, this rate has had on prices or pay.

Sources for this paragraph (1)
  • C28 United Kingdom central bank policy rate (month-end) · 3.75% · 2026-09 · Bank of England

How the latest readings compare with earlier months

Between June and September 2026, the 12-month CPIH rate went up from 2.8% to 3.6%. Each monthly reading was higher than the one before.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

Between May and August 2026, annual growth in average weekly earnings went down from 4.4% to 3.7%. Each reading was lower than the one before. Pay was still higher than a year earlier in every month shown, but by a smaller margin each time.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

What this means for people in the UK

For people living in the UK, the 12-month CPIH figure of 3.6% in September 2026 means the tracked basket, including owner occupiers' housing costs, cost that much more than in September 2025.

Sources for this paragraph (1)

Average weekly earnings were 3.7% higher in the 3 months to August 2026 than a year before. That is an average across workers, so individual pay rises may be larger or smaller.

Sources for this paragraph (1)

Whether a particular household's budget feels tighter depends on its own spending and its own pay, which these national averages cannot show.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

What the data does not tell us

The price and pay figures are built differently and end in different months, so they cannot be read as a direct measure of real spending power.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

The facts here do not explain why CPIH has risen or why pay growth has slowed.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

The figures do not break housing costs out separately, so they do not show how much of the CPIH increase comes from housing.

Sources for this paragraph (1)

Scenarios to watch

  • Scenario, not a forecast If the next CPIH readings keep rising while earnings growth keeps falling, the gap between the two trends described here would widen.
  • Scenario, not a forecast If CPIH levels off and earnings growth stops falling, the two measures would stop moving in opposite directions.
  • Scenario, not a forecast If pay growth picks up again in the next earnings release, the recent run of lower readings would be broken.

What to check next

  • The next monthly CPIH release, to see whether the 12-month rate rises again after 3.6% in September 2026
  • The next average weekly earnings release, covering the 3 months to September 2026
  • The Bank of England's next policy rate decision
  • Any official breakdown showing how much of CPIH comes from owner occupiers' housing costs

Verified data used in this report

IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
F1United Kingdom CPIH inflation, including owner occupiers' housing costs (12-month change)2.8%2026-06Office for National Statistics (UK)
F2United Kingdom CPIH inflation, including owner occupiers' housing costs (12-month change)3.1%2026-07Office for National Statistics (UK)
F3United Kingdom CPIH inflation, including owner occupiers' housing costs (12-month change)3.3%2026-08Office for National Statistics (UK)
F4United Kingdom CPIH inflation, including owner occupiers' housing costs (12-month change)3.6%2026-09Office for National Statistics (UK)
F5United Kingdom average weekly earnings growth (3-month average, 12-month change)4.4%2026-05Office for National Statistics (UK)
F6United Kingdom average weekly earnings growth (3-month average, 12-month change)4.2%2026-06Office for National Statistics (UK)
F7United Kingdom average weekly earnings growth (3-month average, 12-month change)3.9%2026-07Office for National Statistics (UK)
F8United Kingdom average weekly earnings growth (3-month average, 12-month change)3.7%2026-08Office for National Statistics (UK)
C23United Kingdom GDP growth (annual %)1.39%2025World Bank
C24United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)4.75%2025World Bank
C25United Kingdom Fertility rate, total (births per woman)1.552024World Bank
C26United Kingdom Population aged 65 and above (% of total population)19.7%2025World Bank
C27United Kingdom Population growth (annual %)0.3%2025World Bank
C28United Kingdom central bank policy rate (month-end)3.75%2026-09Bank of England
C29United Kingdom consumer price inflation (12-month change)3.5%2026-09Office for National Statistics (UK)
C31United Kingdom food price inflation (12-month change)1.3%2026-09Office for National Statistics (UK)
C32United Kingdom unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)4.7%2026-07Office for National Statistics (UK)

Sources

  • Source: Office for National Statistics, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 — license
  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0) — license
  • Source: Bank of England, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 — license

How this report was checked

  • Data: the newest reference period cited is 2026-09.
  • Figures were collected from the source on
  • Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
  • Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
  • A separate quality-check model raised concerns, and the report was rewritten once to address them.
  • No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.
Update history
  • 2026-10-29 08:00 UTC — created
  • 2026-10-29 08:00 UTC — approved+published

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