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UK prices and pay, June to September 2026: inflation climbs as earnings growth slows

Consumer price inflation went up each month from June to September 2026, while the growth rate of average weekly earnings went down each month from May to August.

Published 2 min read

  • 2026-062.6%
  • 2026-072.9%
  • 2026-083.1%
  • 2026-093.5%
United Kingdom consumer price inflation (12-month change) · Office for National Statistics (UK)

UK Consumer price inflation →

Two lines moving in opposite directions

For an ordinary household, the latest figures point two ways. Prices are going up faster than they were in early summer. Growth in average pay has slowed over the same stretch.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

Consumer prices were 3.5% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier. That 12-month rate has gone up in every month since June.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

Average weekly earnings growth, measured as a 3-month average compared with a year earlier, was 3.7% in August 2026. That rate has come down in every month since May.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

Month by month

Consumer price inflation, 12-month change: 2.6% in June 2026, 2.9% in July, 3.1% in August and 3.5% in September.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

Average weekly earnings growth, 3-month average, 12-month change: 4.4% in May 2026, 4.2% in June, 3.9% in July and 3.7% in August.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

Two other price measures sit alongside the headline rate, and each is calculated differently. CPIH, which adds the housing costs of people who own their homes, showed a 12-month change of 3.6% in September 2026. Food prices, tracked in their own series, showed a 12-month change of 1.3% in the same month. These are separate statistics with their own definitions, so this report does not set them against the headline rate.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.7% in July 2026.

Sources for this paragraph (1)

How the picture has shifted since early summer

Price inflation was 2.6% in June 2026 and 3.5% in September, so the 12-month rate was higher at the end of the period than at the start.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

Earnings growth was 4.4% in May 2026 and 3.7% in August, so the rate was lower at the end of the period than at the start. This means pay was still growing, but more slowly than earlier in the year.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

In the months covered by both series, the earnings growth figure was above the price inflation figure: June, July and August. The distance between them shrank in each of those months. The two are measured differently, though. Earnings growth is a 3-month average, while price inflation is a single-month figure, so this is a rough side-by-side view rather than a precise measure of real pay.

Sources for this paragraph (6)

What this means for households in the UK

The official figures show prices across the UK climbing at a faster rate through the summer of 2026. They also show average pay growth losing pace over the same months.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

These are national averages. They cannot tell you how your own pay or your own spending has changed. A household whose pay has not grown, or whose costs differ from the typical basket, may have a different experience from the averages.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

Earnings data for September 2026 are not in this set, so the figures cannot show how pay compares with the 3.5% price rise in that month.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

What the data does not show

The facts here do not explain why inflation has gone up or why earnings growth has slowed. This report does not offer a cause.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

Earnings growth and price inflation use different time windows, so the gap between them is only an approximate guide. No official real-pay figure is included in this set.

Sources for this paragraph (3)

The average weekly earnings series does not show how pay growth is spread across different jobs, regions or income levels.

Sources for this paragraph (1)

Scenarios to watch

  • Scenario, not a forecast If price inflation keeps going up and earnings growth keeps coming down, the earnings figure could fall to or below the inflation figure, meaning average pay would no longer be growing faster than prices.
  • Scenario, not a forecast If price inflation steadies or eases while earnings growth holds at its August level, the distance between the two could stop narrowing.
  • Scenario, not a forecast If earnings growth picks up again in later months, average pay could stay ahead of prices even with inflation at its September level.

What to check next

  • Average weekly earnings growth for September 2026, to set alongside the 3.5% price inflation figure for that month
  • Consumer price inflation for October 2026, to see whether the run of monthly increases continues
  • CPIH inflation, which includes owner occupiers' housing costs, for October 2026
  • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for months after July 2026

Verified data used in this report

IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
F1United Kingdom consumer price inflation (12-month change)2.6%2026-06Office for National Statistics (UK)
F2United Kingdom consumer price inflation (12-month change)2.9%2026-07Office for National Statistics (UK)
F3United Kingdom consumer price inflation (12-month change)3.1%2026-08Office for National Statistics (UK)
F4United Kingdom consumer price inflation (12-month change)3.5%2026-09Office for National Statistics (UK)
F5United Kingdom average weekly earnings growth (3-month average, 12-month change)4.4%2026-05Office for National Statistics (UK)
F6United Kingdom average weekly earnings growth (3-month average, 12-month change)4.2%2026-06Office for National Statistics (UK)
F7United Kingdom average weekly earnings growth (3-month average, 12-month change)3.9%2026-07Office for National Statistics (UK)
F8United Kingdom average weekly earnings growth (3-month average, 12-month change)3.7%2026-08Office for National Statistics (UK)
C23United Kingdom GDP growth (annual %)1.39%2025World Bank
C24United Kingdom Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)4.75%2025World Bank
C25United Kingdom Fertility rate, total (births per woman)1.552024World Bank
C26United Kingdom Population aged 65 and above (% of total population)19.7%2025World Bank
C27United Kingdom Population growth (annual %)0.3%2025World Bank
C28United Kingdom central bank policy rate (month-end)3.75%2026-09Bank of England
C30United Kingdom CPIH inflation, including owner occupiers' housing costs (12-month change)3.6%2026-09Office for National Statistics (UK)
C31United Kingdom food price inflation (12-month change)1.3%2026-09Office for National Statistics (UK)
C32United Kingdom unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)4.7%2026-07Office for National Statistics (UK)

Sources

  • Source: Office for National Statistics, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 — license
  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0) — license
  • Source: Bank of England, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 — license

How this report was checked

  • Data: the newest reference period cited is 2026-09.
  • Figures were collected from the source on
  • Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
  • Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
  • A separate quality-check model raised concerns, and the report was rewritten once to address them.
  • No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.
Update history
  • 2026-10-28 07:01 UTC — created
  • 2026-10-28 07:01 UTC — approved+published

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