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EconomyCanada edition

Canada's policy rate held steady while inflation edged up

The Bank of Canada's policy rate stayed at 2.25% from June to September 2026, while consumer price inflation rose from 2.8% to 3.09% over the same months.

Published 1 min read

  • 2026-062.25%
  • 2026-072.25%
  • 2026-082.25%
  • 2026-092.25%
Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · Bank of Canada

Canada Central bank policy rate →

What happened

For households, the cost of borrowing set by the Bank of Canada did not move this summer, but prices kept climbing a little faster. The policy rate was 2.25% at the end of each month from June to September 2026.

Sources for this paragraph (4)
  • F1 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-06 · Bank of Canada
  • F2 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-07 · Bank of Canada
  • F3 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-08 · Bank of Canada
  • F4 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-09 · Bank of Canada

Over the same months, consumer price inflation went from 2.8% in June to 3.09% in September. By September, inflation sat above the policy rate.

Sources for this paragraph (3)

What the official figures show

The policy rate figures are month-end values, in per cent. They were 2.25% in June, July, August and September 2026.

Sources for this paragraph (4)
  • F1 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-06 · Bank of Canada
  • F2 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-07 · Bank of Canada
  • F3 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-08 · Bank of Canada
  • F4 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-09 · Bank of Canada

Consumer price inflation is measured as the 12-month change, which compares prices with the same month a year earlier. It was 2.8% in June 2026, 3.03% in July, 3.03% in August and 3.09% in September.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

How the summer months compare

The policy rate in September was the same as in June. Inflation was higher in September than in June.

Sources for this paragraph (4)
  • F1 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-06 · Bank of Canada
  • F4 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-09 · Bank of Canada
  • F5 Canada consumer price inflation (12-month change) · 2.8% · 2026-06 · Statistics Canada
  • F8 Canada consumer price inflation (12-month change) · 3.09% · 2026-09 · Statistics Canada

Most of the rise in inflation came between June and July. It held at 3.03% in July and August, then rose slightly to 3.09% in September.

Sources for this paragraph (4)

What it means for people in Canada

Pay was rising slightly faster than prices in July 2026. Average weekly earnings were 3.18% higher than a year earlier, while consumer prices were 3.03% higher. Both are 12-month changes, but they come from different surveys.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

The earnings figure for September is not in the data. So it is not possible to say whether pay kept pace with the 3.09% inflation rate that month.

Sources for this paragraph (2)

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.5% in September 2026. The figures here do not show how that compares with earlier months.

Sources for this paragraph (1)

For anyone facing a mortgage renewal or carrying a variable-rate loan, the figures show that the policy rate did not change from June to September. They do not show what lenders charged individual borrowers.

Sources for this paragraph (2)
  • F1 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-06 · Bank of Canada
  • F4 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-09 · Bank of Canada

What the data does not tell us

The figures do not explain why inflation rose or why the policy rate stayed unchanged. They also do not show any Bank of Canada decisions after September 2026.

Sources for this paragraph (2)
  • F4 Canada central bank policy rate (month-end) · 2.25% · 2026-09 · Bank of Canada
  • F8 Canada consumer price inflation (12-month change) · 3.09% · 2026-09 · Statistics Canada

Consumer price inflation is an average across many goods and services. A single household's costs can rise faster or slower depending on what it buys.

Sources for this paragraph (1)

Scenarios to watch

  • Scenario, not a forecast If the next consumer price release shows a 12-month change below September's 3.09%, the recent upward drift in inflation would have paused.
  • Scenario, not a forecast If the Bank of Canada changes its policy rate at a coming decision, the month-end rate would move away from the 2.25% held since June.

What to check next

  • The October 2026 consumer price index release from Statistics Canada
  • The Bank of Canada's next policy rate announcement
  • Average weekly earnings for August and September 2026
  • The next monthly unemployment rate from the Labour Force Survey

Verified data used in this report

IndicatorValuePeriodSourcesAccessed
F1Canada central bank policy rate (month-end)2.25%2026-06Bank of Canada
F2Canada central bank policy rate (month-end)2.25%2026-07Bank of Canada
F3Canada central bank policy rate (month-end)2.25%2026-08Bank of Canada
F4Canada central bank policy rate (month-end)2.25%2026-09Bank of Canada
F5Canada consumer price inflation (12-month change)2.8%2026-06Statistics Canada
F6Canada consumer price inflation (12-month change)3.03%2026-07Statistics Canada
F7Canada consumer price inflation (12-month change)3.03%2026-08Statistics Canada
F8Canada consumer price inflation (12-month change)3.09%2026-09Statistics Canada
C12Canada food price inflation (12-month change)2.18%2026-09Statistics Canada
C13Canada new housing price index (12-month change)-2.04%2026-09Statistics Canada
C15Canada shelter prices (CPI, 12-month change)1.75%2026-09Statistics Canada
C16Canada unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)6.5%2026-09Statistics Canada
C17Canada average weekly earnings (12-month change)3.18%2026-07Statistics Canada
C18Canada GDP growth (annual %)1.74%2025World Bank
C19Canada Unemployment, total (% of labour force, ILO modelled estimate)6.91%2025World Bank
C20Canada Fertility rate, total (births per woman)1.252024World Bank
C21Canada Population aged 65 and above (% of total population)20.26%2025World Bank
C22Canada Population growth (annual %)0.94%2025World Bank

Sources

  • Source: Bank of Canada — license
  • Source: Statistics Canada. Reproduced and distributed on an "as is" basis with the permission of Statistics Canada — license
  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0) — license

How this report was checked

  • Data: the newest reference period cited is 2026-09.
  • Figures were collected from the source on
  • Written by an AI model (claude-opus-5-5) using only the official figures listed in this report.
  • Automatic checks passed: every number matches a cited figure, every paragraph names its evidence, and there is no investment advice or copied source text.
  • A separate quality-check model raised concerns, and the report was rewritten once to address them.
  • No person reviewed this report before publication. Automatic checks confirm the numbers, not every interpretation.

The source has since revised figures cited here (as collected → current):

  • Canada average weekly earnings (12-month change) · 2026-07: 3.18% → 3.2%
Update history
  • 2026-10-28 16:00 UTC — created
  • 2026-10-28 16:00 UTC — approved+published

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